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Category: Labour

Why does Tony feel he has to apologise to Cameron?

Why does Tony feel he has to apologise to Cameron?

Will this be the first row of the Gord-Dave era? Reproduced above is the start of the main political story in today’s Observer and looks set to be the first Labour-Tory battle ground for Brown’s arrival at Number 10. With both new leaders jostling to assert themselves this could be very dangerous territory. For, according to the report, one of the big ideas outlined from Brown last weekend was part of a package of suggestions put by the Tories in…

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How will Gord and Dave each play July 4th?

How will Gord and Dave each play July 4th?

Will humour be the king when they come face to face? Probably the most eagerly awaited political encounter for years will take place at 12 noon on July 4th when the new Labour leader, Gordon Brown, will face David Cameron at Prime Minister’s Questions for the first time. The format will be familiar – the opposition leader gets a maximum of six questions which he can use when he wants but the Prime Minister always has the last word. How…

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When is the Guardian going to understand betting?

When is the Guardian going to understand betting?

Why doesn’t the media quote betting exchange prices? This piece which went up on the Guardian website an hour or so a go is a typical example of lazy and misleading coverage of political betting. It’s almost become a cliche now to cover a story by looking at the betting odds – but what betting odds? For if the paper had looked at the dynamic betting round-the-clock exchange prices where punters themselves trade with each other a different picture emerges….

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Big move to Alan Johnson in the deputy race

Big move to Alan Johnson in the deputy race

This survey, in the Sunday Times today, clearly is a big boost for the education secretary, Alan Johnson, who will surely now move into the favourite slot. My only observation is that the poll closed on May 29th before the big Newsnight debate and is a bit old. Johnson will surely move in the betting. Mike Smithson

Could the exhaustive ballot favour a woman?

Could the exhaustive ballot favour a woman?

Should you cover yourself on Harman/Blears? Even though the latest YouGov Labour members poll on the deputy leadership battle closed on Monday there’s no sign yet of the findings being published. In any case the survey took place before Tuesday’s key televised hustings which might have had an impact. Meanwhile I have been going back over the polling data that we do have to see if there are any further clues that might point to the winner. For, as many…

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So what job has Jack been promised?

So what job has Jack been promised?

What’s his reward for delivering Brown his coronation? Looking back over the past three months the move that secured the leadership and Number 10 for Brown without the bother of a contest was the appointment of Jack Straw to run the Chancellor’s campaign. At the time Straw himself was being tipped as a contender and everybody assumed that he must have been promised something big. But what was that going to be for the former boss of both the home…

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Thread 2: the verdict of the market on Newsnight

Thread 2: the verdict of the market on Newsnight

The money moves to Cruddas after the Newsnight hustings The above chart records the changing fortunes on the Betfair betting exchange of the four outsiders in the race for the Deputy Leadership before, during, and in the aftermath of last night’s Newsnight hustings on BBC2 which started at 10.30 pm. To watch the debate click here. Most of us have opinions about political outcomes – gamblers are prepared to back up their views with hard cash and that’s what these…

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Can anybody stop the Benn bandwagon?

Can anybody stop the Benn bandwagon?

Is Johnson suffering over his public school teacher comments? The deputy leadership candidate who had the most trouble getting the necessary 45 nominations to get on the ballot, Hilary Benn, is continuing to attract the money on the Betfair market and now stands at his tightest price yet – 1.32/1. As the chart shows there has been a big turnaround in the past week with interest moving away from the Education Secretary, Alan Johnson, who chalked up the biggest slate…

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