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Is Gordon winning the battle for the centre ground?

Is Gordon winning the battle for the centre ground?

But why’s there so much turbulence amongst LD supporters? This is the updated version of a chart that is featured often here – how declared LD supporters respond to YouGov’s question of whether they would prefer a Brown-led Labour government or a Cameron-led Tory one? This is asked every month of all voters but the chart just focuses on the Lib Dems. Those surveyed are not given any other option and the results are probably a good pointer to potential…

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Could Gordon have a 10% lead with Populus?

Could Gordon have a 10% lead with Populus?

Will Roger be proved right in tomorrow’s poll? The boss of Populus, Andrew Cooper, has just confirmed to me that their monthly survey for the Times has taken place a little earlier this month and should be appearing in the paper tomorrow. Normally fieldwork starts over the first weekend over the month and that would normally have meant next week. The survey was carried out from Friday to Sunday so that the majority of the 1,500 respondents will have been…

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Is this man Labour’s secret Tory mole?

Is this man Labour’s secret Tory mole?

Can Leigh force his party off the middle-ground? This is Edward Leigh – the anti-abortion, anti contraception, anti-genetic research and anti-gay rights campaigner who is calling for his party to shift the policy focus away from the centre ground back to traditional “Tory values”. Perhaps he ought to read this piece by the usually well-informed writer, who also uses the term “Mole” in the First Post. Earlier in the week he wrote on the Davies defection: “..What is becoming increasingly…

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Is it worth betting on an early general election?

Is it worth betting on an early general election?

New spread market: How many weeks to go? Spread-betting works best when it is linked to a specific numerical outcome such as “how many seats will Labour get?” or “how many states will the Democrats take in the 2008 White House Race?”. You look at the prices and decide whether the total will be lower, in which case you sell, or higher in which case you buy. You choose how much you want to bet and that becomes your stake…

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Now YouGov has the Lib Dems down at 12%

Now YouGov has the Lib Dems down at 12%

Can Ming’s by election team prove the polls wrong? A new YouGov poll for Sky News which was published overnight has the Lib Dems at their worst ever figure from the firm – even below the last low point of 13% in January 2006 in a survey taken after the Mark Oaten and Simon Hughes tabloid revelations. The figures are with changes on the last YouGov poll in the Sun Times a week and a half ago are: CON 37%…

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What are the betting lessons of yesterday?

What are the betting lessons of yesterday?

When following the polls and the markets can be expensive? If things had been going to plan I would have spent yesterday in Manchester with the Sky News team acting as one of Adam Boulton’s pundits at the Labour leadership conference. Thankfully circumstances prevented the trip because otherwise I might have been associated with the TV station’s wrong call, along with the Daily Telegraph, that Alan Johnson had won. For it’s all too easy to get carried away with what…

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Whooooooooops

Whooooooooops

This is how the Telegraph web-site reported the “news”. My guess is that it will not stay on the site for very long. Sky was also calling it for Johnson almost until the end. Mike Smithson

Late betting move to Harman

Late betting move to Harman

With only minutes to go before the contenders are told there’s been a late move to Harman – as our chart showing the odds represented as an implied probability shows. Mike Smithson