Are we seeing a change of the political terms of trade? When the chief secretary to the treasury, Andy Burnham (right) accepted an invitation to go on Newsnight on the day John Redwood’s Tory policy review was published he must have thought that his task was going to be easy. Just chuck in a few hand grenades about Cameron being forced to the right and then make the standard attacks on “unfunded Tory tax cuts”. Alas it was not to…
Is there the evidence to make the toughest call in British politics? This is Deborah Mattinson, joint chief executive of Opinion Leader Research, a pollster for the Labour party for the past two decades and the person who will advise Brown on whether to go for an early general election. If Brown does decide to go in October it will be because Mattinson is convinced not only that Labour cannot lose but that Gord will almost certainly top Tony’s 2005…
Why was the Beeb so quick to apologise? Having spent ten years in my early career as an editor with BBC News it strikes me that the quick apology that has been made for parts of the corporation’s coverage of the Tory competition proposals is something of a watershed and might suggest that Brown’s media honeymoon might be running out of steam. The BBC does not usually react so quickly – especially when the initial source of the complaint was…
How would more devolution affect Labour south of the border? The announcement by Scotland First Minister, the SNP’s Alex Salmond, that there’s to be a “national conversation”, a distinctly new Labour term, on the future governance of Scotland could present a real challenge for Brown. For on the one hand he wants to head off the SNP pressure and might consider more devolution – but how does he do that without the role of Scottish Labour MPs at Westminster becoming…
Is the Guardian splash a gift to the beleaguered Tories? An extraordinary piece of journalistic digging by the Guardian this morning suggests that since Brown became PM on June 27th his government been able to announce new spending of £39.32 billion pounds and that this flurry of activity has been behind the bounce in the polls. The new spending includes an extra £7.7bn for defence to 2011; £15bn to improve the railways; £4bn extra spending on early years education over…
Has Cameron got the most problems this morning? Judged by the standards of normal mid-term by elections the reduced Labour majorities in Ealing Southall and Sedgefield were sensational victories for Labour. To have kept its average vote share loss in both seats down to 10.7% was something that the party can take real comfort from. But these are not normal times and these cannot be judged as normal mid-term by elections. We have what’s being presented as a change of…
Could the issues all link together over Ming Campbell’s future? The Betfair betting exchange has opened five new political markets as part of its desire to increase the range of options available to punters. That there should be betting on the two by elections is no surprise but it’s good that the firm has wasted little time in setting them up. Even though Labour starts from extraordinarily strong positions in both seats, as the general election figures show, by elections…
Who came out best on the constitutional exchanges? This afternoon, a day earlier than expected, we saw the first exchanges between David Cameron and Gordon Brown. The occasion was Brown’s announcement on the constitutional changes and they gave the Tory leader the opening to raise the “English Votes for English Laws” issue as well as an EU referendum. After being out of the limelight for so long the exchanges gave him a platform for two seemingly populist policies which might…