Did you get a bet on in the new PMQs market? With the two tabloids that are reckoned to have the most impact on public opinion, the Mail and the Sun, leading on the legal bid by the Speaker to stop MPs expenses being made public could David Cameron be considering this as his first line of attack at PMQs this lunchtime? The Tory leader has never been known to be shy when it comes to issues raised by the…
What could the row mean for his future in the job? The issue that’s dominating the UK political news this Easter is the threatened revolt by Labour MPs, including ministers, over the the Embryo bill that would allow the creation of part-human, part-animal embryos for research. According to the Observer three Cabinet minsters – Ruth Kelly, Des Browne and Paul Murphy – are “struggling to accept” parts of the bill’s provisions while there are some reports suggesting that upto twelve…
Launching the new market – betting on Prime Minister’s Questions The bookmakers, Ladbrokes has launched what could develop into a fascinating weekly betting market – What will be the topic of David Cameron’s first question at PMQs? Normally the most watched and most speculated about moment in the commons each week happens just after midday on Wednesdays when the opposition leader gets to his feet and starts the first of the six questions he is allowed to put to the…
Why the poll slump when the budget measures were popular? A day on from the dramatic polling news in the Sunday newspapers there’s a must read article in the Independent today by John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, and one of the UK’s leading psephologists. In it he attempts to explain how the fact many of the measures in last week’s budget proved popular squares with Labour’s downward poll movement. One of the surveys, from YouGov had Labour…
The 16% Tory lead poll – the detail Reproduced above is an extract from the detailed data from today’s YouGov poll in the Sunday Times showing the Tories with their best figures for a quarter of a century. The paper is leading on the survey this morning. By any account the figures are sensational and, if repeated at a general election, would see David Cameron returned with a three figure majority. But that could be more than two years away…
Should appealing to this group be Priority Number One? Earlier in the year it was estimated that the average age of those who would probably vote at the next general election was 58 and commentators like Jackie Ashley in the Guardian were suggesting that Labour ought to do much more with the older age groups which are now being joined by the baby boomers. And there are three key factors about this group: People are living longer so the proportion…
Results of a “quickie” Populus poll of 586 people on yesterday’s budget are just out on the Times website and shows broad public backing for the measures on drinking and motoring. The survey did not include a voting intention question and was almost certainly not past vote weighted. This is likely to have produced a smallish but significant nevertheless pro-Labour sample. This factor is important when judging findings like the one that “most voters do not think the Budget would…
Can we repeat our 2007 success? One of the down-sides of political betting is that unlike racing or football or other sporting events you very rarely get the chance to cheer your choice on while an event is running. It’s all rather cold and mechanistic apart from, that is the budget. Above is a list of spread markets from Sporting Index. Here you look at the list and decide whether Darling is going to say more or less of the…