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LAB moves to 19% deficit with YouGov, drops vote share in all latest by-elections & loses seat to CON

LAB moves to 19% deficit with YouGov, drops vote share in all latest by-elections & loses seat to CON

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After budget debacle, Tories slump to er… 19-point lead, highest in government for 30 yearshttps://t.co/Da8rb748dG pic.twitter.com/aH69ITa2Mf — Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) March 10, 2017 Tonight's results: one Con gain from Lab, one Con gain from UKIP, one LDem gain from Con, two Con holds. https://t.co/Q1lXVZh7PI pic.twitter.com/LNNipm8SFb — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) March 10, 2017 The Corbyn leadership disaster continues The first full post budget voting intention poll is out and YouGov in the Times finds the Tories extending the lead to 19%…

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Labour’s Achilles heel in Manchester Gorton is its faction-ridden local party

Labour’s Achilles heel in Manchester Gorton is its faction-ridden local party

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The by-election selection battle could be bloody A few days ago there was an excellent piece in the Manchester Evening News about Gorton constituency Labour party and the ongoing fights within it between the warring factions. It has been so bad that it has effectively been under special measures for well over a decade and the choice of who’ll take over what appears to be a totally safe seat will bring this out into the open. “Last year a mammoth…

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Support for Corbyn is weakening among Labour members. Don’t assume a Corbynite replaces him.

Support for Corbyn is weakening among Labour members. Don’t assume a Corbynite replaces him.

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Corbyn is safe for now argues Keiran Pedley but with his popularity among Labour members falling and Brexit on the horizon he is unlikely to lead Labour into a General Election. Those of you watching Peston yesterday will know that YouGov has a new poll of Labour members out courtesy of Ian Warren of Election Data. 1,096 Labour members were interviewed last week (27 Feb – 3 Mar) and here are some of the key numbers. The first notable data…

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Why Corbyn should stay

Why Corbyn should stay

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In 1981 when Tony Benn stood for the Deputy Leadership against Healey and lost by a 0.9% margin , he got 30% of the Parliamentary Labour MPs’ votes but 19 members of Tribune abstained, including one Neil Kinnock.  Margaret Beckett denounced him furiously as a Judas, allegedly prompting another MP to say: “So Benn is Jesus now, is he?”.  Following the 1983 defeat, it took Kinnock two elections and hand-to-hand combat with Militant and others before Labour once again became…

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POLL ALERT: Labour has a ‘Corbyn problem’ and it’s not going away

POLL ALERT: Labour has a ‘Corbyn problem’ and it’s not going away

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Two-thirds of voters think he’s the wrong person to lead Labour into a General Election A new Polling Matters / Opinium survey, taken before the Copeland and Stoke by-elections, shows that voters think Corbyn is the wrong person to lead Labour into a General Election, with those considering voting Labour more likely to do so if he is replaced. Keiran Pedley explains. In the latest of a series of surveys for the Polling Matters podcast, Opinium asked three questions of…

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77% of non Labour voters say Labour has the wrong leader and 73% say Labour has the wrong policies

77% of non Labour voters say Labour has the wrong leader and 73% say Labour has the wrong policies

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Some truly damning @ComResPolls polling for Corbyn and it contains some worrying polling for Labour too. https://t.co/0S4xgZYGw4 pic.twitter.com/ch34ZuPFXS — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 25, 2017 This poll, like the result in Copeland, is a harbinger of a truly awful general election result for Labour. When will Corbyn take responsibility? ComRes have conducted a poll for The Sunday Mirror, and if you’re Jeremy Corbyn or a Labour supporter it makes me for painful reading, the poll shows A damning poll after Labour’s…

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The dark cloud on Labour’s horizon: total wipeout

The dark cloud on Labour’s horizon: total wipeout

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Just where is Labour’s floor for 2020? One of the best political tips of the 2015 general election was to back Labour for 0-5 seats in Scotland. When William Hill first put the market up – after the independence referendum – they marked that outcome at no less than 125/1. (I apologise for not being able to namecheck the PBer who tipped the bet; I forget who it was.) That price was a testament to the inertia of thinking as…

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Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central: What have we learned?

Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central: What have we learned?

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It is in the nature of political junkies, like sharks, to be constantly moving forwards, and like goldfish, to be constantly forgetting what has just happened.  We should try to do better.  In the wake of two extraordinary by-elections we should reflect on their implications.  Because, as it happens this time, their implications are manifold. The Conservatives did incredibly well This is one of those rare occasions where the media have actually underplayed something.  The Conservatives’ victory in Copeland is…

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