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Category: Corbyn

Labour’s Next Leader: Dawn Butler at 100/1?

Labour’s Next Leader: Dawn Butler at 100/1?

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We need to learn the lessons of Corbyn’s wins Identifying Labour’s future leaders used to be a relatively easy job, certainly when compared against the Tories. Gaitskell, Wilson, Callaghan, Smith and Brown were all clearly identifiable as strong contenders five years or more before they took on the job. Blair, at that same distance, could have been seen (rightly, as it turned out), as a future potential leader but not the next one. Kinnock and Ed Miliband were a little…

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New YouGov leader ratings finds both TMay and Corbyn struggling with their voters from GE2017

New YouGov leader ratings finds both TMay and Corbyn struggling with their voters from GE2017

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Getting on for half of GE2017 LAB voters view Corbyn unfavourably Only minutes after I published the previous thread bemoaning the fact that we see very few leader ratings surveys in British polls up popped YouGov with its latest favorability numbers. The main figures for Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are in the screenshot above. To my mind the most important cross-break is the party split from the 2017 General Election. What do those who voted for you last time…

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Corbyn’s approval ratings fall from from a net minus 3% to a net minus 32% in just one year

Corbyn’s approval ratings fall from from a net minus 3% to a net minus 32% in just one year

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Opinium By comparison TMay’ drop from a net minus 13% to minus 20% One of the features of conventional British political analysis is that almost all the focus is on voting intention for an election that might not take place for another few years with hardly any attention being given to leader approval ratings. This is so different from the US where leader ratings dominate the political polling narrative. I was quite impressed ahead of last November’s American mid-term elections…

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Ahead of this afternoon’s May-Corbyn meeting the two leaders get warmed up with a spiky PMQs exchange

Ahead of this afternoon’s May-Corbyn meeting the two leaders get warmed up with a spiky PMQs exchange

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Jeremy Corbyn: "None of that was very clear to me, I don't know about anybody else" Labour leader is unimpressed by Theresa May's answer on "alternative arrangements" to replace the Irish backstop in #Brexit deal#PMQs updates: https://t.co/1SWYMqgzLk pic.twitter.com/VmJW0qvPhy — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) January 30, 2019 If we were to predict the outcome of this afternoon’s historic meeting face-to-face meeting between TMay and Mr Corbyn based on what happened at today’s PMQs it is hard to see this taking things very…

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Corbyn would be taking a huge gamble going into an election so out of step with LAB voters on Brexit

Corbyn would be taking a huge gamble going into an election so out of step with LAB voters on Brexit

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Yesterday in what was billed as his “big Brexit speech” LAB leader Corbyn called for a general election should TMay lose fail to win backing for her Brexit deal in the vote next week. But he’s been far more reluctant to allow Labour to give any backing to the increasing clamours for a specific referendum on the deal. As is widely known Corbyn has been anti the EU just about all his political career and he’s not going to change…

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Even if Labour secures an early election it is hard to see how the party wins It

Even if Labour secures an early election it is hard to see how the party wins It

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Corbyn needs CON converts which isn’t happening The main objective of Labour, we are told, during this period of extreme uncertainty over Brexit is to secure an early General Election. To do that it will need to win enough backing for a confidence motion that defeats the government that is not rescinded within two weeks. The MP totals for each party make that very difficult except if some means can be created for the DUP’s 10 MPs to back Labour…

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New polling finds just 28% of GE2017 LAB voters support the party’s stance on Brexit

New polling finds just 28% of GE2017 LAB voters support the party’s stance on Brexit

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And Corbyn slumps to a post-GE2017 YouGov leader rating low New polling data just made available on the YouGov website shows the scale of the gamble LAB is taking with the party’s stance on Brexit. To the question “Do you support or oppose the stance that the Labour party have taken towards Brexit?” GE2017 LAB voters split by 28% to 25% on whether they supported or opposed. This is an incredibly low proportion given how important Brexit dominates current politics…

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Matters of confidence. What to expect if the government loses a vote of no confidence

Matters of confidence. What to expect if the government loses a vote of no confidence

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Care to make it interesting? As if politics wasn’t already volatile enough, the government faces the persistent threat of a vote of no confidence. Jeremy Corbyn made a complete ass of himself and several of his most senior colleagues before the Christmas break with an on-off-on-again-off-again vote of no confidence, but he will have other opportunities. The current government is a minority government, kept in power through the offices of the DUP. Right now, however, the DUP are not happy….

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