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Category: International

Is Angela Merkel set to be the next German Chancellor?

Is Angela Merkel set to be the next German Chancellor?

Would a Schroeder defeat mean that it’s all change in Europe? If the polls and the betting markets have the German election right then Angela Merkel’s grouping of Christian Democrats and its Bavarian-based associate party Christian Social Union are on their way to a victory in the national ballot which is now set to take place on September 18th. The “starting gun” was fired on Thursday when the German President, Horst Koehler, announced that he had agreed to Chancellor Schroeder’s…

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UK Spread-betters put their money on NON by 9%

UK Spread-betters put their money on NON by 9%

The Balance of Money prediction on the French Referendum: NON 54.5 % OUI 45.5% Because French law bans opinion polls on election day and the day before gamblers are having to rely on the surveys that were published on Friday. And even though two of these showed a weakening in the NON position the mood of UK gamblers is to put their money on the treaty being rejected by quite a big margin. IG Index has the current YES spread…

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Which French pollster do you believe?

Which French pollster do you believe?

Is there money to be made on the gap narrowing? Two of the three final polls on the French EU Constitution referendum have shown a slight move back to the YES camp although NO is still firmly ahead. These are the surveys: TNS-Sofres: Oui 49%, Non 51% CSA: Oui 48%, Non 52% Ifop: Oui 44%, Non 56% Although the overall message is that the treaty is going to be rejected there just might be value in a BUY YES bet…

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YouGov: UK opposition to EU Constitution growing

YouGov: UK opposition to EU Constitution growing

Will Blair stay longer if France votes NO? With the people of France voting tomorrow in their crucial referendum on the EU Constitution a YouGov poll UK opinion in today’s Daily Telegraph has NO 46%: YES 21%: when asked whether they “approve” the new Constitution. When the pollster last asked the question in January opinion was split by 45-25% so the margin has increased by five points since then. There is a sharp difference between supporters of the different parties….

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The French EU referendum – it’s down to turnout

The French EU referendum – it’s down to turnout

Is this an election for punters to avoid? With the polls showing that 54-55% of French people say they will vote no in the EU constitutional referendum on Sunday the best price you can get on this outcome is 3/10 on. There are two main spread-betting markets operating :- IG Index have 47-49% on the proportion voting YES. Confusingly the Spreadfair market is on the proportion voting NO where the latest spread is 52-53.9% . Any deviation from what the…

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The French Referendum: the money goes on NON

The French Referendum: the money goes on NON

Could there be a late swing back to OUI? The latest polls showing gathering support for the NON position in the weekend referendum in France on the EU Constitution has seen sharp changes in the betting where the NON outcome is now the firm favourite. The best bookmaker price is 8/11 with the Betfair market showing 0.75/1. The Spreadfair spread betting exchange on the percentage the NON side will get is showing 51-51.5% – so there’s probably better value there…

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What’s best for Brown and Clarke – a OUI or a NON?

What’s best for Brown and Clarke – a OUI or a NON?

How will next weekend’s vote impact on UK politics? With just a week to go before the French EU constitution referendum betting price on a “Non” have continued to tighten and now a full range of bookmakers are offering markets. The OUI position is still ahead but the best price on a NON is now 5/4. But the result, whichever way it goes, could have an enormous impact UK domestic politics and particularly on the when will Blair go question,…

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