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Category: International

Could the French Socialists miss the run-off once again?

Could the French Socialists miss the run-off once again?

The “Third Man”, François Bayrou, continues to move forward in the polls As the latest betting prices in the French Presidential election show the big movement since the end of February has been to the so called “Third Man” in the race, the centrist candidate, François Bayrou. This follows a spate of recent polls that show he is now within striking distance of the two front-runners, the Right’s Nicolas Sarkozy and the Socialist party’s Ségolène Royal. This could be critical…

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Why the form-book says Ségolène

Why the form-book says Ségolène

Has a woman ever failed when she has got so close? Before the weekend the publishers of my book now called “The Political Punter – How to make money by betting on politics”, emailed to suggest that I write an additional chapter with my calls on the 2007 French Presidential election, the 2008 White House race and the next UK General Election. No pressure there then! For by the time of the French election at the end of April and…

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As Sakorzy arrives to campaign – has Royal fluffed it?

As Sakorzy arrives to campaign – has Royal fluffed it?

Guest slot on the French Election by Tim Jones It’s a remarkable testament to London’s pulling power, French failings and how European politics are running to catch with the blasting open of the continent’s labour markets. Tonight, London is experiencing a first: an election rally by a French presidential candidate. It makes sense for Nicolas Sarkozy, the official candidate of the ruling UMP conservative coalition, to come looking for votes in a tight race. Out of a much larger number,…

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And now the big betting market of 2007…

And now the big betting market of 2007…

The money piles on Royale after Sarkozy’s nomination The news that the French interior minister, Nicolas Sarkozy, has formally clinched the ruling conservatives’ nomination for President fires the starting gun on a race that could produce the biggest UK political betting market of 2007. He now faces a tight race against the Socialist’s Segolene Royal, in the elections that take place in April and May to decide who should succeed Jacques Chircac. All the experience is that what makes a…

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Could the world soon be run by Women?

Could the world soon be run by Women?

Would having the only male leader impact on UK domestic politics? An extraordinary series of developments, which few people seem seem to have picked up, is that in just over two years time the leaders of three of the four biggest economies in the West could be women. Germany got its first ever female Chancellor in the early summer when Angela Merkel just managed to secure the top job after an indecisive election result saw the end of the Schroeder…

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Will Austria finally say “Wiedersehen” to Jörg Haider?

Will Austria finally say “Wiedersehen” to Jörg Haider?

A guest article by Paul Maggs Two overseas elections take place on 1st October. Brazil holds the first round of its presidential election, and President Lula is virtually assured of victory – indeed he may clear the required 50% share on the first ballot. Closer to home, Austria also goes to the polls, but here the outcome is less clear-cut. A recent poll gives the ruling centre-right People’s Party (ÖVP) a 2-point lead over the Social Democrats (SPÖ) – all…

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The Nobel Peace Prize

The Nobel Peace Prize

Who will be the 2006 laureate – or laureates? An interesting market which politicalbetting contributors were discussing yesterday for the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize, to be announced on 13 October. Like many of the bookies’ novelty markets, there’s room for oddsmakers to have some fun. One doubts much money is being taken on Hugo Chávez or Oprah Winfrey. The favourite, at 5/1 with Paddy Power, is Martti Ahtisaari (pictured), the former Social Democrat President of Finland who has taken various…

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Elephants in the conference room

Elephants in the conference room

The market is writing off the old men of the Parti Socialiste The British press has revived its irregular interest in French politics over the weekend, enjoying what can be painted as some bitchy speeches from the platform at the Socialist party’s “summer university” in La Rochelle. The ire of the party’s senior “elephants” is mostly aimed (or at least interpreted to be aimed) at Ségolène Royal (pictured). According to the polls, Royal is the runaway preference of the electorate…

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