Could a Dutch referendum have acted as a shield? News from the Hague within the past hour could have a big impact on UK politics. For as can be seen from the EU Observer report the chances of there being a referendum in the Netherlands on the EU treaty now look very slim indeed. It will be recalled that the Dutch rejected the EU constitution in a vote in 2004 which took the pressure off Tony Blair who had promised…
But has he left it too late? After months of speculation, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson finally joined the race for the 2008 Republican nomination, with an appearance on Jay Leno’s Tonight show while his rivals were engaged in a debate in the key early primary state of New Hampshire. This is one of the latest ever entries by a major candidate in modern times (although Bill Clinton didn’t declare until autumn 1991 when Bush senior was seen as unbeatable),…
Will this man replace John Howard in the autumn? The next Aussie General Election will be the 5th since Coalition leader John Howard became PM in 1996. It’s virtually certain to be held in either late October or in November, with a possibility of early December. Two contrasting trends have emerged in recent weeks:1. the opinion polls have continued to show a slow but gentle improvement in the Coalition’s fortunes, and 2. the betting markets have tightened considerably, moving against…
Guest slot on the Australian election by Steven Phelps There have been some major changes in the polls and in the betting on the coming Australian election since I last reported. First, a quick recap. The next Aussie General Election is expected to be held in October this year. Pollsters quote a Two Party-Preferred (TPP) basis result, which allows for second preferences. The Coalition, led by John Howard, has won the last 4 General Elections, 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004….
Guest slot on the Australian election by Steven Phelps The next General Election in Australia is likely to be held in October this year. The last one having been held in October 2004 the latest possible date for the next one is 19th January 2008, but commentators are predicting 20th October 2007, and that’s only five months from now. The incumbent Prime Minister is John Howard. As leader of the Liberal Party, he heads the Liberal Party / National Party…
David Leyshon looks at the parties and issues Fianna Fail – this is the de Valera party founded in the mid twenties. It won its first election in 1928 (I think). It is the party that has been in power most since. Bertie Ahern is FF. They are republican but havn’t supported the IRA in their various military campaigns. In their modern form they are populist and well organised. It has often occurred to me that New Labour has learned…
French election betting prices are here. Mike Smithson
How prices change in the final few days One of the features covered in my book “The Political Punter” is what happens to betting markets in the final few days before an election when the small body of knowledgeable political gamblers is joined by many in the wider betting community. They tend to follow favourites resulting in the prices of the most fancied options getting tighter and others moving out. So according to the book “If the person or party…