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Mark Pack on his polling archive database

Mark Pack on his polling archive database

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Way back in the 1980s, one day I was watching David Owen being interviewed on television, responding to probing questions about the then Alliance’s opinion polls ratings by saying there was a seasonal pattern in third party support in the polls. Frustration with the lack of detail in his answers or knowledge in the interviewer’s follow-up questions turned into a fruitless search for sources for answering the question afterwards. Which then led to the birth of my collection of opinion…

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Ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer says “Don’t underestimate the interest that MPs have in survival”

Ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer says “Don’t underestimate the interest that MPs have in survival”

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How do modern political parties cope with change? The current turbulence in Labour is part of a wider picture seen across the West. Simmering dissatisfaction with established parties and politicians is generating support for iconoclastic individuals and movements in nearly every country to an extent not seen for a long time. From Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump to Syriza, Podemos, UKIP, the AfD, the FN and numerous others, merely being not part of the familiar establishment attracts a wave of interest. In Britain, it’s…

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Antifrank considers what the Blairites could do if Liz Kendall comes last

Antifrank considers what the Blairites could do if Liz Kendall comes last

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Go fourth and multiply The Labour leadership election hasn’t gone according to the Blairites’ plan, to put it mildly.  Dan Jarvis declined to run and Chuka Umunna launched an in-and-out campaign that prefigured the performance of England’s top order in the last Test, leaving Liz Kendall as the sole standard bearer of the right of the Labour party in the contest. She has chosen, probably unwisely, to drop some truth bombs on her electorate.  This has not gone down well. …

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Antifrank: Hanging tough – the Conservative intake of 2015

Antifrank: Hanging tough – the Conservative intake of 2015

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Antifrank looks at the new members of the Tory parliamentary party. Despite relatively few seats changing hands in May, more than a fifth of Conservative MPs – 74 in total – were not in the last Parliament.  They will have a big influence on the dynamics of the Conservative party in government.  What do they look like?  Well, here they are: I’ve ploughed through MP websites, interviews and newspaper articles to find out more about them.  In the course of…

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Pleased to meet you: the Labour intake of 2015

Pleased to meet you: the Labour intake of 2015

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Antifrank looks at the Labour intake of 2015 The election in May was a huge disappointment for Labour, going backwards rather than forwards.  Despite losing seats, however, over one fifth of the Labour MPs elected in May were not in the House of Commons in the last Parliament.  That is a big chunk of the Parliamentary party and the new MPs will have a big influence over the party’s future direction.  Who are these new MPs, what do they believe…

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Continuing his series on the boundaries Antifrank on the role of the Boundary Commission

Continuing his series on the boundaries Antifrank on the role of the Boundary Commission

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The body that will oversee the shake-up In my last two posts, here and here, I’ve looked at the likely impact of the boundary review and considered how the parties might wish to see those boundaries fall.  To date I haven’t really looked at the role of the Boundary Commissions at all.  This is a serious omission. In fact, it will be the Boundary Commissions that determine the constituency boundaries. The parties can make representations but the Boundary Commissions will have…

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Heathrow is a major headache for Cameron (and an opportunity for Labour)

Heathrow is a major headache for Cameron (and an opportunity for Labour)

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Picture credit: Wikimedia Commons. Whilst the Conservatives fight over this week’s Airport Commission report, expanding Heathrow is exactly the type of common sense, business friendly policy that Labour should be supporting as it seeks to win again. The party must embrace it argues Keiran Pedley The Prime Minister has a leadership crisis on his hands. Perhaps this crisis is not as serious as recent world events in Tunisia or Greece. Perhaps it does not animate Conservative back benchers as much…

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Electoral analysis: The art of changing boundaries

Electoral analysis: The art of changing boundaries

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Antifrank looks at the art of changing boundaries In my last post I spent some time looking at the likely impact of the impending boundary changes on the numbers of seats in different regions and the potential impact on the seat numbers of different parties.  In this post I shall look at how the detail of the boundary review might assist or hinder the different parties. National party strategic considerations In the boundary commission review in the mid-1990s the Conservatives…

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