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Irish General Election 2020 : Results & Review (Part One : C & D Constituencies)

Irish General Election 2020 : Results & Review (Part One : C & D Constituencies)

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A general election never fails to excite or interest us and there was simply no inception here. The main talking points were Health, Homelessness & Housing (they must like or dislike the letter “H” in Ireland). Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael & Sinn Féin are the main three parties, but who will win and where did they go wrong? Find out below!Carlow / Kilkenny (Quota = 12,274)As expected Kathleen (Sinn Féin) got elected here, although I didn’t expect her to win. John…

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Irish General Election 2020 : Predictions & Review, Part One

Irish General Election 2020 : Predictions & Review, Part One

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Last week, Leo Varadkar called an early Dáil Election. Will his choice backfire or will he get another term? Find out below. Michael Martin (Fianna Fáil) has been putting the pressure on few quite some time, Fine Gael only won by a handful of seats last time (2016 election) and Leo is now starting to feel the heat. Leo has made a handful of school boy errors and according to the recent polls, Michael Martin should be elected as the…

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History of the Political Punter: Always Expect the Unexpected

History of the Political Punter: Always Expect the Unexpected

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The modern era of big, open, political betting began in 1963 when Ron Pollard of Ladbrokes offered odds on the Conservative leadership contest for the ordinary punter. It was a dismal start as the 5/4 favourite Rab Butler was beaten by the 16/1 shot Alec Douglas-Home. In offering the market Pollard tapped into a long, often secret, history of political betting in Britain. In the 1920s, people on the stock exchange would bet on ‘majorities’ – what we now call…

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A Brexit Carol – how last time is shaping views of GE2019

A Brexit Carol – how last time is shaping views of GE2019

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There is a ghost which is stalking this election in the media coverage, and it is the spirit of 2017. Everywhere one looks right leaning journalists are fretting and not quite believing the polls. The spirit of Election 2017 and a good ghost for Labour it is too – “Oh Jeremy Corbyn !”. Everywhere one looks the written media is observing this election as a closish horse race “You can’t rely on labour leavers to not revert to type” twitter…

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Can anyone challenge the green and orange waves?

Can anyone challenge the green and orange waves?

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A guest slot by GreenMachine A lot has happened since the 2017 election and the Northern Ireland Executive has been out of office for 3 years now, What will we see this in the election!? First of all we’re going to start with the more obvious results. Belfast West: S.F have held this seat since the 1980’s bar the 1992 election where the S.D.L.P won by several hundred votes. S.F regained control of Belfast West in 1997 (shortly after the Peace…

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“National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy” – a review

“National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy” – a review

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INTRODUCTION The book is an overview of “National Populism”, the umbrella term the authors use to describe a political stance of increasing electoral salience in Europe and North America, familiar to us as an explanation for Brexit and Trump. The authors are Roger Eatwell of Bath University and Matthew Goodwin of the University and Kent: both are experts in academic study of the right and all its flavours. The book is a summary of their academic studies, expanded into a…

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Endgame. The death of the referendum mandate draws near

Endgame. The death of the referendum mandate draws near

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https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1168479741491462144 Leavers have an apparently compelling pair of arguments. Certainly, those arguments completely satisfy them. First, they argue that everyone agreed that the referendum result would be implemented. Secondly, they argue that the wording on the ballot paper was clear, and that all that is required is for Britain to leave the EU. So, what’s the hold-up? It would be churlish to take issue with these arguments. So let me be that churl. For those two arguments are mutually contradictory….

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Chronicle of a bet foretold Part 2

Chronicle of a bet foretold Part 2

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It is 11am on September 21st 2019 as I write this. Earlier in the year I wrote an article about fixed-odds betting used to insure against political risk. I finished by saying I would investigate other modes, specifically currency conversion. This is that investigation. PREAMBLE The investigation took the form of recollections of previous betting combined with consideration of new modes. Time constraints meant that some modes could only be briefly examined so conclusions from this article should be taken…

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