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Category: Guest slot

What about Northern Ireland’s 18 seats?

What about Northern Ireland’s 18 seats?

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Could this be where power ends up resting? (Anybody who watched last week’s Question Time from Belfast would have been left in no doubt about the complexities and continuing tensions within Northern Ireland politics. With all sorts of different developments that could have an impact on the UK outcome I’ve asked long-standing PBer, Yokel, to give us a run-down. In this first part he looks at the big picture – then in future posts he’ll examine the eight critical seats….

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Is it because the marginals ARE different?

Is it because the marginals ARE different?

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The map that changed my view of the election I’ve shown this before but it’s worth running again as we try focus on why things might be different in the marginals. For combined with the Andy Cooke analysis and the marginals polling, including last week’s aggregated MORI data, a clearer picture is emerging of the dynamics of the coming election and a better sense of the outcome. The map first appeared here in September 2007 in a guest slot by…

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Introducing the Andy Cooke Seat Calculator

Introducing the Andy Cooke Seat Calculator

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Based on the concept of a pendulum – not a ratchet Later today we’ll be introducing a totally new commons seat calculator that has been developed by long-standing PBer and statistician, Andy Cooke. This will be published here sometime after lunch. It’s stems from the thinking outlined in Andy’s initial post yesterday in which he argued for the merits of “pendulum thinking” as we seek to project the coming election rather than the mind-set of “the ratchet.” For the conventional…

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Guest slot from Patrick on the impact of turnout

Guest slot from Patrick on the impact of turnout

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Do the Tories do best if more people are voting? The chart above shows the actual number of votes cast for all parties from 1979 to 2005 and also the total of votes not cast (the paler blue line) from within the overall electorate each year. For 2010 I have assumed the current state of the polls CON 40%: LAN 28%: LD 19%: OTH 13% (at 75% turnout). Two shapes leap out: 1.The blue Tory and Did Not Vote (DNV)…

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The JackW “Against the Grain” slot

The JackW “Against the Grain” slot

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O Ye Of Little Faith It’s said in life only two certainties exist – the grim reapers of the Inland Revenue and the ultimate Grim Reaper. In the past year of Britains political life there would also appear to have been two certainties – A majority Conservative government and the Liberal Democrats gaining Watford, the latter still available at excellent odds !! Subsequent to the general election most political analysts have taken for granted Mrs Cameron boiling the eggs in…

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Against The Grain – A Conservative Tsunami ?

Against The Grain – A Conservative Tsunami ?

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Jack W asks: Were you up for Portillo ? It was perhaps the most iconic moment of the 1997 general election as Michael Portillo was defeated at Enfield Southgate by the eyebrow raising fresh faced Stephen Twigg. It was also one of the Conservative defeats that locked in the Labour landslide. A defeat that was was well outside the expectations of both the BBC and ITN exit polls and early results swing of 8-10% Portillo fell off the scale at…

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