Is this the best value odds-on bet? Odds-on betting isn‘t always particularly attractive, especially when the bet lasts over several months. A lot can happen in the meantime to upset expectations, it ties up a lot in comparison to the anticipated return and even if it does come in, there’s no great sense of elation, as when picking a long-odds winner – and of course, nothing like the returns either. Even so, that’s not to say there isn’t any value…
“…..It’s as if he thinks that, if only he can make one more titanic effort, the scales will suddenly fall from the public’s eyes and the Tories will stand revealed as the wicked, malevolent force he thinks they are, and Brown will be bathed in virtuous sunlight as the country’s great protector. Brown is entitled to think this. But it’s a fantasy. Smart politics ought to have a bigger and more supple vision than that in times like these…”– Martin…
Telegraph How’s it going to affect the party political battle? My first reaction when I saw the front page of this morning’s Telegraph was, I guess, hardly unique – what was the political affiliation of the six who appear to form the next stage of the ongoing expenses saga? For until the election is over and the votes are counted we are going to be in a high-octane political atmosphere as the Tories sense victory and Labour tries to hold…
How many losses do we expect them to suffer? At the General Election on May 5th 2005 Labour won 40 of the 59 seats north of the border on just 38.9% of the vote. No wonder that Blair “forgot” about his 1997 manifesto commitment on electoral reform. Since the election they lost Dunfermline to the Lib Dems in 2006 and Glasgow East to the SNP in 2008. This was partly balanced by the “gain” overnight of the Speaker’s seat. So…
Do they give a fair sense of opinion? Regulars on PB will know that I generally detest the findings from non-voting intention questions in polls. So much is dependent on how the question are formulated and the order in which there are put. I am sure that we all recall from that wonderful “Yes Prime Minister” sequence when Sir Humphrey managed to devise two sets of questions on conscription which led to entirely different outcomes. So what are we to…
Guardian What would be the impact of a defection? One of the early signs of what was to come from Brown Central was the ferocious campaign to undermine and eventually secure the sacking of Frank Field at the start of the Labour government. He had been brought in by Blair to “think the unthinkable” about welfare reform until the Brownies got there way. This is recounted at length in Tom Bower’s brilliant biography on Brown and the man who is…
The Sun What does this say about Brown’s survival chances? The big overnight political betting story is the news that David Miliband won’t be going for the EU High Representative job – and all the speculation that this opens up not only about that appointment but the whole Labour leadership. Congratulations to Peter the Punter, Morus and others for picking up developments ahead of MSM and to Morus (Greg Callus), in particular, for his tip at 9.20pm on who might…
Would his plan have gone through if his ratings were better? The key impact that opinion polls have is not in predicting the general election but in setting the whole back-cloth for the way current politics is conducted. So is this how we should explain the lack of support for Mr. Brown’s tax plan from other leading countries at yesterday’s meeting of G20 finance minister? If Brown looked set to continue in office for the next five years then his…