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Our thoughts tonight are simply with the people of Paris

Our thoughts tonight are simply with the people of Paris

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Update – French media says at least 40 people are dead after a series of violent incidents in and around Paris — Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) November 13, 2015 Tomorrow's front page: Carnage in Paris pic.twitter.com/R7QXz4h8f5 — The Times and The Sunday Times (@thetimes) November 13, 2015 Can we all put politics aside for one night? I have strong views on this – very strong – but now is not the time #solidaritywithparis — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) November 13, 2015…

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Lynton Crosby could do it again next week and give the Tories outright power on a third of the vote

Lynton Crosby could do it again next week and give the Tories outright power on a third of the vote

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Or will the “good guys” win this time? Canadians go to the polls next week in an election that has echoes of the British General Election in May – the most intriguing being the involvement of Lynton Crosby. Prime Minister Stephen Harper hopes the Australian can repeat what he did for David Cameron — magic an outright victory in an election where the Tory poll numbers have been limping along in the low thirties. That was how the final polls…

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Volkswagen – the Lance Armstrong of the global auto-mobile industry

Volkswagen – the Lance Armstrong of the global auto-mobile industry

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BBC News The scale of the VW scandal is quite breathtaking Although at the moment this is not directly a political story there are likely to be huge political implications. These will be on top of the financial disturbance to the markets that has started to happen. The dramatic drop in the VW share price already is going to filter through to many areas. One thing that comes to mind immediately is how come there are apparently much tighter clean…

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Searching for a parallel to 2015

Searching for a parallel to 2015

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Parallels from the past can never be as neat as those proposing them might like to hope. For starters, any modern comparison for 2015 could never do justice to the SNP’s triumph, and what happens in Scotland over the next five years could dramatically change the Parliamentary arithmetic in 2020. Regardless, let’s see what we can come up with, focussing on the two main parties. 1992 is a very tempting parallel, and probably the one that offers Labour the most…

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The general election now the UK’s number one story

The general election now the UK’s number one story

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Top Ten Most Noticed news stories this week #TTMN | General Election, for the first time, most noticed news this week pic.twitter.com/gOjYBYoDgm — Populus (@PopulusPolls) April 10, 2015 I do like this weekly Tweet from Populus which can put a lot of things into context. Too often those deeply immersed in politics tend to overstate importance of what seem to them to be major developments to the outside world. This brings it down to earth. At the moment the reference…

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At this stage in 2010 bullish punters pushed the betting to a CON majority of 36 completely in defiance of the polling

At this stage in 2010 bullish punters pushed the betting to a CON majority of 36 completely in defiance of the polling

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3 months before 2010 election betting markets predicted Con maj 36 http://t.co/82hyWOedHW pic.twitter.com/wJNzaTFY06 Thx @MikeSmithsonPB — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) February 13, 2015 Are CON punters being grossly optimistic yet again? Last night John Rentoul asked me what had happened in the betting at this stage of the 2010 campaign and I dug up the above – an index that I created and reported regularly on here based on the spread betting and Betfair line prices. At this stage in the…

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Betfair punters rate Tory chances of an overall majority as being higher than a LAB but think that Labour will win more seats

Betfair punters rate Tory chances of an overall majority as being higher than a LAB but think that Labour will win more seats

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A CON majority rated as being just a tad more likely than a LAB one on Betfair pic.twitter.com/PrVP160EJm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 But LAB to win most seats still marginal favourite On Betfair's "most seats" market LAB has very narrow lead over CON pic.twitter.com/7sAm9yGcpY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 The big conclusion is that it’s going to be very tight