politicalbetting.com

Belatedly, I can at last say that my spreadsheet model is now available to download from Google Docs. The instructions are now in the adjacent post on PB2 and in that post is a link to the model. Looking at the effects identified in my original analysis, we can now expand on the details – thanks largely to the in depth and constructive discussion on pb.com. Firstly, the “Constituency Effect”. I now think that this is a poor name, but…

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I’m at a conference in London and won’t be able to prepare a fresh thread until later. Please continue the discussion here,

CON 39% (39) LAB 33% (33) LD 17%(17) Peter Kellner validates the figures – ConHome was wrong I’ve just managed to get in contact with Peter Kellner and he has confirmed the above figures to me – so ConHome got it wrong. The overnight YouGov daily poll showed no change in any of the numbers from Saturday night. The fact that there is no change from Sunday must come as major set-back for the Tories – and the Lib Dems….

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My apologies if I was wrong All the previous header on the latest YouGov daily poll for the Sun has been deleted as a precautionary measure because I have no idea whether the poll numbers are correct or not. I had based the piece, written in the early hours, on a posting by Tim Montgomerie on ConservativeHome who, I assumed had the correct numbers. For the chairman of the company that owns that site and a big share-holder is Stephan…

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Will we have to wait until Tuesday night? At the moment the big unknown is how this is all going down with the voters. The one certain element that Ms Pratt has added to the equation is that it has been made into a much bigger story. Is Labour being hurt or is Labour benefiting? We should see two new polls tonight – the monthly ICM survey for the Guardian and the YouGov daily survey for the Sun. Fieldwork for…

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Continuation thread Please do not make defamatory comments about Ms Pratt. Mike Smithson

Twitter The Observer front page

“..Sir Gus O’Donnell, the cabinet secretary, became so alarmed by the prime minister’s behaviour that he launched his own investigations when he received reports of Brown’s bullying of staff. O’Donnell then gave the prime minister a stern “pep talk” and ordered him to change his behaviour. “This is no way to get things done,” he told Brown. The revelation that the prime minister’s behaviour was so extreme that it triggered a warning from Whitehall’s most powerful official will shock the…

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