Was this the weirdest moment of the campaign? I’ve now watched this several times and I still can’t answer my own question. Why has a complete news cycle for Labour been dominated by Gordon and the Elvis impersonator? What was the plan? What was the big idea? UPDATE – I’ve changed the video clip to the Channel 4 version – it’s even more strange. Majority betting NOM CON LAB OTH/LD Ladbrokes 4/6 11/8 16/1 20/1 Political Smarkets 57% 40% 5%…
YouGov Daily Poll – S. Times Apr 24 Apr 23 CONSERVATIVES 35% 34% LIB DEMS 28% 29% LABOUR 27% 29% BPIX/YG Mail on Sunday Apr 24 Apr 17 CONSERVATIVES 34% 31% LIB DEMS 30% 32% LABOUR 26% 28% MORI – News of the World Apr 23 Apr 19 CONSERVATIVES 36% 32% LIB DEMS 23% 32% LABOUR 30% 28% Is MORI an outlier? Overall it’s been a good polling night for the Tories with the party well established in the mid-30s…
ICM Sunday Telegraph Apr 23 Apr 18 CONSERVATIVES 35% 33% LIB DEMS 31% 30% LABOUR 26% 28% ComRes S. Mirror/IoS Apr 24 Apr 20 CONSERVATIVES 34% 35% LIB DEMS 29% 27% LABOUR 28% 25% But the Lib Dems progress with both So our first two polls for tomorrow’s Sunday papers are out and provide mixed messages for the reds and blues but good news for the yellows. For the key development is that the yellow bubble hasn’t burst and the…
For interactive map go to PoliticsHome Dr Rob Ford (University of Manchester), Dr Will Jennings (University of Manchester), Dr Mark Pickup (Simon Fraser University) and Professor Christopher Wlezien (Temple University) explain their vote projection method now published and updated regularly at Politics Home. As PB readers and regulars know, interpreting the torrent of polling during an election campaign is a difficult task. The ‘horse race’ attracts widespread interest and can shape the tone of the campaign. Yet, true patterns of…
Angus Reid are running their usual polling operation where you will be able to watch the numbers live as they come in. This should start after the debate. See here. Election betting from the new political betting exchange Smarkets or from Ladbrokes. Mike Smithson
YouGov Daily Poll – Sun Apr 22 Apr 21 CONSERVATIVES 34% 33% LIB DEMS 28% 31% LABOUR 29% 27% The media onslaught takes a bit of a toll What’s probably the only pre-debate poll tonight is out and the numbers are above. For the first time since the first debate a week ago the Lib Dems are back in third place. Clearly all eyes will be looking to Bristol this evening for the second leaders’ debate. Things might look very…
Or could Clegg turn it to his advantage? So here it is – the big story about Clegg that we’ve been promised all evening. It’s hard to comment without seeing the details and a lot depends on how Clegg himself handles it. The danger for those trying to burst the Lib Dem bubble is if the substance of the claim doesn’t quite live up to the billing Let’s see how this plays out. Mike Smithson
Election betting from the new political betting exchange Smarkets or from Ladbrokes. Mike Smithson