Tories up 3 in final ICM poll
ICM Guardian May 4 May 2 CONSERVATIVES 36% 33% LABOUR 28% 28% LIB DEMS 26% 28% Lib Dems now joint second with ComRes ComRes: ITV News/Indy May 4 May 3 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 28% 29% LIB DEMS 28% 26% Mike Smithson
Angus Reid has Labour down at 24 percent
Angus Reid/Politicalbetting Will the “Golden Rule apply again” Angus Reid/Politicalbetting May 5 May 1 CONSERVATIVES 36% 35% LABOUR 24% 23% LIB DEMS 29% 29% Lib Dems jump 4 with YouGov YouGov – the Sun May 5 May 4 CONSERVATIVES 35% 35% LABOUR 28% 30% LIB DEMS 28% 24% Labour move up three with Harris Harris- Daily Mail May 5 May 4 CONSERVATIVES 35% 36% LABOUR 29% 26% LIB DEMS 27% 28% Populus – The Times Populus/The Times May 5 Apr…
Welcome to polling convergence night
Will they all produce figures in the same broad area? Populus – The Times Populus/The Times May 5 Apr 27 CONSERVATIVES 37% 36% LABOUR 28% 27% LIB DEMS 27% 28% TNS-BMRB TNS – BMRB May 4 Apr 27 CONSERVATIVES 33% 34% LABOUR 27% 27% LIB DEMS 29% 30% Opinium – Daily Express Opinium – D. Express May 5 May 3 CONSERVATIVES 35% 33% LABOUR 27% 28% LIB DEMS 26% 27%
Is this the best hung parliament bet?
Take the Hills 7/4 William Hillhave got a great hung parliament bet that looks really good. The firm is offering 7/4 against “David Cameron (or any other Tory politician) to be Prime Minister in Hung Parliament in 2010”. Given that even if the Tories are short they are still going to be a long way ahead of the party in second place and the chances must be that Cameron would lead a minority or coalition government. Mike Smithson
Who’ll soon be on the Westminster train?
Tonight’s polling thread.. I’m in London for my regular slot on the ITV campaign show with Jonathan Dimbleby. Tonight I’m expecting the ComRes roly-poly and YouGov. The big deluge of polls will come tomorrow. I’m won’t be back looking at the site until about 11.30pm. Mike Smithson
Can Dave emulate Edward Heath?
Year Post-war elections with a change of government 1951 Outgoing LAB government had lost an effective majority. The Tories won outright 1964 Incoming Labour government with minuscule majority. Second election eighteen months later 1970 Outgoing Labour government with working majority replaced by Tory government also with a working majority 1974F Incoming Labour minority government – second election held seven months later 1979 Outgoing LAB government had lost a working majority. The Tories won outright 1997 Outgoing CON government had lost…
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Tonight’s Marf cartoon and ComRes
The gap moves down to 8 with ComRes ComRes: ITV News/Indy May 2 May 1 CONSERVATIVES 37% 38% LIB DEMS 26% 25% LABOUR 29% 28% To find out more about Marf’s work click here. Mike Smithson