Betfair odds against the Tories winning most seats How the Tory price tightened The above chart shows how punters on the £1m Betfair “who will win most seats” markets have reacted to the events of the past two weeks when the Tory immigration plans started to have an impact at the polls only to be followed by the Margaret Dixon affair. The price reached an all-time peak of more than 10/1 two weeks ago last Monday only to move to…
This is the front page of today’s Sunday Express. Their web-site does not seem to have a link to the body of the story but it appears that a “secret” internal survey is suggesting that the Tories are in the lead. Quite what the substance of the story is or why the survey’s contents have been leaked to a paper not usually friendly to the party is not clear? The next “proper” poll should be the March survey by Populus…
Frequent site contributor, Mark Jones – we know him a CymruMark – has asked if he can announce his canditature for Plaid Cymru in the Vale of Clwyd on Politicalbetting. Rhyl, in the constituency, came to prominence last time because it was there that John Prescott got involved in his famous punch up. Mark said: I chose to launch on political betting .com because it has become the key site on the internet to discuss possible outcomes for the general…
Working the swing out from 1997 – not 2001 The standard way of working how many seats a party will get with a given share of the vote is to use one of the seat calculators, most commonly Martin Baxter’s, which makes its prediction based on applying the suggested uniform national swing to what happened in each of the seats in 2001. But what happens if instead you compare today’s vote shares with what happened in 1997 when a much…
The internet pollster should steady Labour nerves This month’s YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph has LAB 38 CON 32 LD 21 This goes in the opposite direction of the week’s ICM and MORI polls which is probably explained by the fact that YG do not filter by whether people are likely to vote. So the pollsters that usually favour Labour have shown Tory progress while the normally pro-Tory internet pollster has a different view. Discuss. NOTE I am on…
I am going on holiday tonight and will not be back until a week on Monday which means there will be a limited service on the site over the next ten days. I can just about generate new articles and publish them on my Sony Ericsson 910 smart phone, and have one or two general items in my “store”, but the level of coverage will be reduced. When I return I will be devoting myself full-time, apart from a house…
In the wake of the euphoria following last week’s visit to assess London ability to stage the 2012 Olymic Games some UK bookmakers have tightened the odds on the capital being chosen. Paris, however, remains the very firm favourite, and its price only eased a touch during last week’s visit. It is an even stronger favourite on the non-UK markets. The best UK bookie price on London is now 7/2; the Betfair betting exchange has 4.1/1 but with the US-focussed…
Unmoderated sites like this offer easy pickings for the spam merchants and we have to keep it under control all the time. As users might have noticed we have had a very bad weekend. Until now we’ve mostly been the target of on-line gambling sites – not porno ones. That has changed and we have had to broaden the range of words and phrases that will not get through. This will mean that some legitimate comments might not be published…