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Why is he focusing all this effort on the wrong target? If Gordon Brown is, as has been reported, the driving force behind the Dave the Chameleon campaign, why is he investing Labour’s precious campaign resources and air-time on the Tory leader when, notwithstanding the party’s second place in Moray, the real threat at the moment is coming from the Lib Dems? For the remarkable feature of the polls in recent months is how resilient the Lib Dem vote has…

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Will their troubles take the pressure off the leadership? Another month is nearly at an end and I am another month closer to winning my bet that Lucky Tony will still be in his job at the end of next year. May 4th 2006 was always going to be a tricky hurdle to negotiate. Within a few days of Lucky’s General Election triumph last year so-called “smart opinion” had it that if Lucky did survive 2005 then Labour’s losses in…

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When are we going to see betting on next week’s elections? With so many unpredictable factors and the main polls painting completely different pictures there looks as though there will be shocks of some sort in next week’s local elections. A lot could depend on the outcome for the three main party leaders. For Ming Campbell a successful May 4th will be the ideal start to his term as party leader. But what are we to make of the polls?…

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ICM has Lib Dems up three – Labour down three The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian this morning records a big increase in Lib Dem support at the expense of Labour. The shares are compared with the last ICM poll three weeks ago CON 34%(-1): LAB 32%(-3): LD 24%(+3). This is a huge boost for the Lib Dems ahead of the local elections less than two weeks away and is the biggest ICM share for the party for two…

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How the party’s “Dave the Chameleon” boosts the Tories In 1997 when Labour won its first land-slide victory more than 80% of the population were without multichannel television and had to rely on just four channels for their information and recreational needs. Audiences for the then main TV news bulletins – BBC1 at 9pm and the ITN News at Ten – were vast compared with what their equivalents get today. We’ve now reached a stage where two out of every…

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Boundary Changes : The Great Leveller or An Unfair Advantage? Since the Second World War there have been seven boundary changes to the United Kingdom parliament. Some have been caused by changes in the UK constitution (for instance the reduction of the Scottish seats) and some have been caused due to the underpopulation of urban centres and the overpopulation of rural areas, but do these changes favour any one party or do they reflect the whole country? Ted Heath won…

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Is the 2.9/1 “Tories getting a majority” price worth taking? In the thread yesterday Marcus Wood, one the PB.C’s most long-standing contributors and pictured above when he stood for the Tories at Torbay in 2005, posted the following comment:- +++ BIG NEWS +++ I have broken the habit of a lifetime (no betting)and just opened an account on Betfair and placed a bet on an overall Con majority. I have to say to anyone not having done it before it…

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The US pollster puts the three leaders and Gordon under the microscope The BNP story has somewhat overshadowed the latest focus group on Newsnight by the US pollster, Frank Luntz which was screened in two parts. These always make good television and the positive reactions of the panel last October played a big part in David Cameron’s bid for the Tory leadership. In the latest studies – available to watch here – Luntz tests the views of floating voters to…

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