Boost for Cameron as he reflects on his first six months in the job A Mori poll in the Sun this morning has some remarkably good news for David Cameron as he ends his first half year as leader. The projected vote shares are with the changes on last month are: CON 41%(+5), LAB 31%(-1), LD 18%(-3). Such vote shares at a General Election would, according to the Baxter calculator, produce a Commons of CON 344 seats: LAB 251: LD…
The move to the Tories continues The period from and including May 4th to June 1st produced a large crop of by-elections (37 in total). Of these, 25 were contested by all three parties. Over the month, the Conservatives won 24 seats – a net gain of 8, the Liberal Democrats won 6, Labour won 3 (a net loss of 3) and Independents, minor parties, and nationalists won 4, a net loss of 5. This was the best monthly performance…
Is this the prelude to something bigger? Alan Johnson, the 13/1 second favourite to become Tony Blair’s successor, is making a move this weekend that will heighten his profile within the party and could well be a springboard to a top job bid. A much-trailed interview to be shown on GMTV on Sunday has him declaring that his interest in becoming Deputy – should John Prescott step down. He says; “People have asked me if, when there is a vacancy,…
. Could one of these be Britain’s 2nd woman party leader? With the speculation about Ming’s future as Lib Dem leader it’s inevitable that people should be thinking about who could succeed him. So far the main focus has been on Nick Clegg (8/11), who did not do his chances any good the other day after being over-heard discussing Ming’s failings in a mobile phone call. As well as Clegg in the betting are David Laws (4/1), Ed Davey (5/1)…
“They’ll be dancing in the streets of Witney tonight!” Phew! Everyone calmed down now after the local elections at the start of the month? That’s a relief because boy has this month been a real rollercoaster for all concerned (and to think it all started with a set of local elections that were quite frankly unpredictable). When the dust had settled and the councils all declared it was clear that was just one winner and that was David Cameron’s Conservatives….
HOW BADLY ARE LABOUR DOING AT LOCAL LEVEL? My initial reaction to the local election results was that while they were bad for Labour, they weren’t terrible. Having thought more about this, I think the results were indeed terrible for Labour. Labour now has almost as few councillors (in percentage terms) as it had in 1978, and far fewer than it had in the 1980s. Labour’s local government base has eroded far more rapidly than that of the Conservatives in…
THE TORIES REGAIN METROLAND Few parts of the Country were traditionally more solid for the Conservatives than John Betjeman’s Metroland, the leafy suburbs that sprung up in the Twenties and Thirties in West, and North West London, as the Underground pushed out beyond London into the Countryside and connected towns and villages like Harrow, Hendon, Finchley and Wembley to the Metropolis. Most seats in this region delivered five figure Tory majorities at general elections with monotonous regularity, and delivered scores…
How important is a good PMQ performance? Amidst all the big political stories at the moment there’s a special focus on Ming Campbell who, if you read some columnists, is on the critical list. After going through the trauma of ousting Charles Kennedy Ming finds himself under the media microscope every Wednesday when, as Lib Dem leader, he is allowed a maximum of two questions at Prime Minister’s Questions. The scrutiny has been going on since his lacklustre performance at…