politicalbetting.com

So what’s happening with the Unitary Authorities? The Unitary Authorities were a creation of John Major’s government. They have similar powers to London Boroughs. They combine the functions of County and District councils, in single-tier authorities. There are 46 of them in England, of which 45 will hold elections in May. 25 will hold all-out elections, and 20 will elect by thirds. Most of the seats coming up were last contested in 2003, with some in 2004. In 2003, the…

Read More Read More

Big price changes following unconfirmed reports about the honours probe The chart shows the way the Blair exit date departure market has moved following internet rumours about more developments in the honours inquiry. This just looks like punters covering their positions while developments, if any, are awaited. UPDATE: BBC news saying that Downing Street political adviser Ruth Turner arrested but later released without charge. Mike Smithson

Planned feature on Labour deputy race There should be a piece on betting on the Labour Deputy leadership on BBC2’s Newsnight programme tonight. I’ve just recorded an interview. Mike Smithson

DUE TO A TECHNICAL MESS-UP THIS POST HAS HAD TO BE RE-PUBLISHED But how comfortable are you about betting on the polls? The spread betting firm IG Index has teamed up with YouGov to open a new weekly market based on how the reputations of leading polticians will go up and down in the pollster’s BrandIndex ratings. Each week more than 11,000 on the pollsters panel complete surveys asking them to rate a range of different brands. In addition polticians…

Read More Read More

Why did the paper choose this awful picture? They say a picture is worth a thousand words but the choice of this one to accompany the schooling story seems pretty amazing. What does this say about the chances of the paper giving its backing to the Chancellor at the next election? Thanks Jimbo Jones – 189 previous thread. Mike Smithson

The celebrity pollster gives his verdict on the junior senator for Illinois The Republican pollster whose “focus groups” on BBC’s Newsnight programmes have become a regular part of the political scene in the UK has given Barack Obama a big publicity boost in a new book that has just been published and is covered in today’s Sunday Telegraph. Terms like “the new JFK” have been tagged to many politicians in the 44 years since the killing in Dallas and Luntz…

Read More Read More

What about the the Metropolitan Boroughs? Labour’s loss of support in the 36 Metropolitan Boroughs over the past 10 years has been striking. Back in 1996, Labour received 53% of the vote in local elections in these boroughs. In May 2006, the party received 34% of the vote, a fall of 19%. Back in 1996, Labour won 75% of the seats that came up; last year, the figure was 47%. Labour held 31 of these boroughs, compared to 15 now,…

Read More Read More

Is there more to Mary Anne Sieghart’s piece than just wishful thinking? In her column in the Times this morning the leading writer, Mary Anne Sieghart, is suggesting that the Environment Secretary, David Miliband, is planning a secret bid to take on Gordon Brown for the Labour leadership. She writes: “..No one wants to talk about this publicly, and some fear doing so even off the record. Supporters of Mr Miliband know that his best hope is to reveal no…

Read More Read More