A new YouGov poll of 60 marginal seats where Labour’s majority was between 6% and 14% suggests that there’s been a significant move to the government in the past month. In September the poll projected an overall Tory majority of 110 seats – today’s survey puts that down to 54 seats. The actual voting shares in the poll have the Tory lead at 5% – but remember the seats polls were all solidly Labour last time. The poll was carried…
But the poll suggests that Labour still heading for disaster The October Ipsos-MORI monitor is out this morning and shows a big reduction in the Tory lead from the very exceptional figures of September when the party was a massive 28% ahead. That survey had taken place before the conference season began when Gordon Brown’s problems were at their height. Everybody was expecting a big drop in the October numbers and so it has been. One unique factor that drives…
How many electoral college votes will he take? With the actual outcome of next month’s US Presidential election now almost a forgone conclusion the big question for punters is where they should bet next – and there’s now better way of testing your skills than trying to guess how many electoral college votes the contenders will win. There are lots of different markets including this one from Ladbrokes where you have to choose which segment Obama or McCain will fall…
But for Labour and the Tories it’s no change The Guardian‘s October survey from ICM is now out and for Labour and the Tories there is no change on the last poll from the firm just after the Conservative conference. The big winner is Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems who have been battered in recent surveys from other pollsters but not from ICM. The 21% share is not much down on the general election and is the best from…
UPDATED Were spread punters premature in switching to the Tories? After reporting that the spread markets had moved sharply back to the Tories I have now picked up on the YouGov poll in the Daily Mirror which shows a narrowing of the Tory lead to 8% – although Cameron’s party share is still comfortably in the 40s. In the panel above I reproduce a seat projection from the UK Polling Report calculator which suggests that what appeared a certainty until…
Are they betting that the media narrative is wrong? Spread betters who risk hundreds and sometimes thousands of pounds on the outcome of the next election have moved sharply against Labour. There have been shifts of a massive eight seats on the markets where the number of MPs the parties will end up with are traded like stocks and shares. This in spite of the big opinion poll stories in the papers yesterday about the move back to Labour in…
Click graphic to play video Bush’s former Secretary of State endorses the Senator from Illinois In a powerful appearance on Meet The Press which is well worth viewing, Colin Powell today set out the reasons why he will be casting his vote for Barack Obama, praising his steadiness, intellectual curiosity and vigour, and his depth of knowledge. He described him as a “transformational figure” of substance who had fought a campaign that was inclusive and inspirational, one that reached out…
The first full voting intention poll following the bail-out plan and Brown being feted round the world is very disappointing for Labour. The figures are above and show the Tories still in the 40s with Brown’s party nine points adrift. I was expecting something much closer for the fieldwork took place before Cameron’s big speech when all the focus was on the Prime Minister. There might be other polls tonight which could be better for Labour. There is one consolation…