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Category: General Election

Online v Phone at GE2015: Looking at all the polls it’s hard to conclude anything other that the phone ones “won”

Online v Phone at GE2015: Looking at all the polls it’s hard to conclude anything other that the phone ones “won”

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A possible guide to EU referendum polling? As we all know with the final polls there was very little difference between those that carried out their fieldwork by phone and those that did it online. But this was very much out of keeping with what had happened throughout the formal campaign. The chart above illustrates this graphically. 70% of the phone polls had CON leads against just 26% of the online ones. At the same time 56% of the online…

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UK pollsters should follow the firm that created the industry and move on from party vote shares

UK pollsters should follow the firm that created the industry and move on from party vote shares

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Gallup Arguably Gallup has the right approach for the future The screen grab above is from the Election 2016 page of Gallup – the firm that created modern political polling in the 1930s. Its busy with lots of data, analysis and often excellent insights but one thing that you won’t find are voting intention polls. After a lacklustre performance with its voting numbers at WH2012 the firm took the strategic decision to drop that aspect for WH2016 and focus on…

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If GE2015 had gone the way that today’s ICM sample remembered voting EdM would be PM

If GE2015 had gone the way that today’s ICM sample remembered voting EdM would be PM

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The raw data on GE2015 vote in latest ICM poll. The problem continues.. pic.twitter.com/ARwSzJIhAs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Latest ICM phone poll with changes on DecCON 40%+1LAV 35%+1LD 6%-1UKIP 10%= — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Highlighting the challenge for pollsters on the evening before the GE2015 failure investigation reports I will after all be able to attend tomorrow’s big event in London when the investigation into what went wrong with the GE2015 polling reveals its…

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ComRes online: LAB still 11% behind and 73% say party divided

ComRes online: LAB still 11% behind and 73% say party divided

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Not much cheer for the red team 4 months after Corbyn was elected Another Saturday night and another dreadful poll for LAB and its leader. On voting intention there’s no change with the Tories on 40% and LAB on 29%. But it’s the other findings that should concern those in the Labour Party who are hoping for an early return to power. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The GE2015 polling fail put down to “unrepresentative samples”

The GE2015 polling fail put down to “unrepresentative samples”

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Too many LAB supporters interviewed – not enough Tories A new report just published today by NatCen Social Research and authored by leading psephologist, Prof John Curtice, suggests that the polls called the General Election wrong primarily because the samples of people they polled were not adequately representative of the country as a whole. Rather than other explanations, such as a late swing to the Conservative Party, Labour abstentions, or so-called “shy Tories” not telling pollsters their true voting intentions,…

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In Labour’s entire history just one general election winning leader was the choice of the membership

In Labour’s entire history just one general election winning leader was the choice of the membership

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Watering down the power of MPs has created big problems. Looking at the current gulf between the Parliamentary Labour Party and its leader it is perhaps worth reminding ourselves that party members had no say whatsoever in leadership elections until after the 1983 general election when the party, under Michael Foot, went down to its biggest defeat. He had been chosen by MPs alone and in the first MP ballot in 1980 chalked up just 31.3% of the vote against…

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Alastair Meeks compares his predictions for 2015 with what actually happened

Alastair Meeks compares his predictions for 2015 with what actually happened

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2015 – the past is a country of which I knew little Every year I sit down at Christmas and try to work out what will happen in the following twelve months.  I do this not because I have any great confidence in my predictive power – as you’re about to see, that would be an illustration of the Dunning-Kruger effect – but because it is useful to have a record of what I thought might be going to happen…

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