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Category: General Election

Alastair Meeks looking ahead to the GE2020

Alastair Meeks looking ahead to the GE2020

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The Tories are evens to get an overall majority in 2020. Why? asks Alastair Meeks We’ve been here before.  We languish under a Conservative government with a tiny majority, distracted by a frenzied and incomprehensible internal argument being conducted in raised voices over the EU (a subject about which the public largely do not care), staggering from wholly avoidable crisis to wholly avoidable crisis.  The public rightly see the Conservative party as horribly divided.  Disquiet is growing about their basic…

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Today should have been a day for Jeremy Corbyn to shine and embarrass Cameron and the Government. He failed

Today should have been a day for Jeremy Corbyn to shine and embarrass Cameron and the Government. He failed

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Today is a further example of why the Tories think they have 2020 election won. Corbyn simply isn’t up to the job of Leader of the Opposition. Did Corbyn really not mention IDS, or any of his attacks on Osborne? Did I miss that bit? Should have read out the Marr Show transcript — Jack Blanchard (@Jack_Blanchard_) March 21, 2016 Labour MP: “It takes a particularly special kind of genius to fuck up today. But Jeremy obliged” – Via @georgeeaton…

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The Tories are very lucky the Lib Dems didn’t accept George Osborne’s coupon deal

The Tories are very lucky the Lib Dems didn’t accept George Osborne’s coupon deal

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Embed from Getty Images British politics today might have been very different if the Lib Dems had accepted Osborne’s deal The Mail on Sunday are serialising the memoirs of David Laws, the former Liberal Democrat cabinet minister, in it he reveals that The Tories secretly tried to form a 2015 Election pact with the Lib Dems to keep the Coalition going, according to David Laws. He says George Osborne proposed a so-called ‘coupon election’ deal with the Lib Dems, whereby…

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LAB close the gap by 5 points with ComRes online to just 9% behind

LAB close the gap by 5 points with ComRes online to just 9% behind

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CON 38%-3 LAB 29%+2 LD 7%-2 UKIP 16%+1 GRN 4%+1 The Boris versus Dave findings An encouraging finding for Cameron and one which could be crucial that CON voters are twice as likely to say they trust the PM more than the Mayor to do what is best for Britain (54% say they trust Cameron more v 27% who trust Johnson more). EURef findings but no voting intentions ComResRes voting intwntion numbers have in all case but one come from…

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The detailed data that suggests that Corbyn’s own generation, those of 65+, appear to have given up on Labour

The detailed data that suggests that Corbyn’s own generation, those of 65+, appear to have given up on Labour

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Amongst Corbyn's own age group, those of 65+, just 11% tell ComRes they have favourable view of LAB leader, 71% say unfavourable — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2016 Pensioners are the fastest growing age group The figures above speak for themselves. They are based on a subsample of 471 which gives us a greater level of confidence. Those within this segment are more likely to be on the register and much more likely to vote. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB…

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Those who actually vote are getting older and this has big political implications

Those who actually vote are getting older and this has big political implications

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New report warns that policies will be even more geared to the oldies The chart above is from the Intergenerational Fairness Foundation (IF) a think tank researches fairness between generations. It believes “that, while increasing longevity is welcome, government policy must be fair to all generations – old, young or those to come.” As a result of medical advances and having healthier lifestyles we are living longer. This combined with a far lower participation level in the political process amongst…

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Leader ratings side by side: How JC’s doing against DC generally & with party supporters

Leader ratings side by side: How JC’s doing against DC generally & with party supporters

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The next general election, of course is unlikely to be between Corbyn’s LAB and Cameron’s CON. The latter has made his exit intentions partially clear though we don’t know whether it’ll be before the election or afterwards. There’s doubt on the Labour side as well. Interestingly in recent days PB’s two LAB post writers, Henry G and Donald Brind, have both suggested that they don’t thing Corbyn will be there at the election. Whatever the chart above can only be…

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The pollsters got the big picture at GE2015 absolutely right provided you ignore the rubbish voting intention numbers

The pollsters got the big picture at GE2015 absolutely right provided you ignore the rubbish voting intention numbers

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The polling inquiry should have considered alternatives to standard voting intentions While everybody else has been obsessing about voting intention numbers I’ve been looking at how the pollsters did with their lead rating last May and the big picture is in the chart above. This shows the percentage in each of the samples that gave positive ratings to Mr. Cameron and Mr. Miliband. In the final few days five pollsters asked leader rating questions and the results are featured above….

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