Latest @IpsosMORI poll sees drop in CON lead. LAB & LDs the gainersCON 42% -5LAB 33% +4LD 10% +3UKIP 7% +1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2016 As postal voting starts in Richmond Park the yellows back in double figures The LAB and CON changes are both beyond the normal margin of error. It should be noted that the CON share of 47% in the October survey from Ipsos MORI was not matched in other polls and might well…
TELEGRAPH POLITICS LEAD: Ministers prep snap election #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/WHf2IgPMhf — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) November 4, 2016 But what would they do about the Fixed Term Parliament Act?
Brexit is too important to be left to the whims of unelected peers Why should an advisory referendum be binding? That is the question at the heart of the government’s determination to invoke Article 50 without going to parliament. It’s a difficult – but not impossible – case to argue, and one I will argue. It’s not a political argument. The case there is far simpler. Firstly, there is the risk that the process might be blocked altogether, were the…
Maybe an early election is on the cards Its not been a good day for Theresa May. The decision on Article 50, if upheld by the Supreme Court next month, completely undermines her strategy for dealing with EU extraction. She’s going to find it much harder to follow her Home Office practice of keeping things very much to her close advisors without involving other people. Article 50 will get through but the parliamentary process could be a struggle with enormous…
They used to blame the “plotters” – maybe they should look at their own hapless leadership Until September 24th the red team’s leadership had a ready made excuse whenever terrible polling numbers came out – it was all the fault of the MP plotters who had launched the confidence move against Corbyn in the aftermath of the referendum. Well Corbyn got re-elected in September and the LAB’s polling position is still appalling and miles behind where the lead opposition party…
Sun Zac’s 23k majority looks strong One of the most predicted by-elections of this parliament, at Zac Goldsmith’s Richmond Park, looks set to come about if the government, as expected very shortly, announces that it is going ahead with the expansion at Heathrow. Zac, of course, was the Tory candidate in May’s London Mayoral election and would likely have resigned his seat then if he’d beaten Sadiq Khan. That wasn’t to be but Zac’s long-standing threat to resign if LHR3…
Ladbrokes have a market up on if the Tory or Labour share of the vote will rise or fall at the next general election. On the Tory front it is no bet for me simply because whilst the Tory party is doing well at the moment the Brexit negotiations do have the potential to tear asunder the Tory Party like the Corn Laws did a couple of hundred years ago, which could potentially boost UKIP. On the Labour front if…
Different pollsters, different questions same picture A few days ago I Tweeted a 65+ breakdown from a recent poll and found myself being attacked for highlighting a small sample subset with all the inherent possibilities for distortion. Fair enough. So I’ve gathered the oldies data from the latest polling and put in into one chart with comparison on TMay. What’s striking is how similar the picture is from each of the surveys. The oldies simply haven’t taken to the party…