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Category: General Election

Politics in a democratic one party state

Politics in a democratic one party state

  Aged 69, Seneca the Younger had spent many years in the service of the Emperor Nero, but suspecting him of treason, the Emperor ordered him to commit suicide.  Seneca cut open the arteries of his own arms and the veins of his legs and knees, but his blood flowed slowly and his death did not come quickly.   To hasten the process, he drank poison, but still death eluded him.  Finally he was carried into a hot bath and suffocated…

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As ICM reports another gigantic CON lead Number 10 moves to squash the “snap election” speculation

As ICM reports another gigantic CON lead Number 10 moves to squash the “snap election” speculation

ICM/Guardian poll CON 45% (+1) LAB 26% (-2) UKIP 10% (-1) LD 9% (+1) GRN: 4% (-1) This morning there have been two significant announcements from number 10. Firstly article 50 will be invoked next week on March 29th. Secondly it is being made very clear that there will be no general election. This is how the Guardian is reporting the latter: “…In the past Theresa May has said repeatedly that she has not plans to call an early general…

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ComRes becomes the 3rd pollster in a week to have UKIP fourth

ComRes becomes the 3rd pollster in a week to have UKIP fourth

ComRes for Indy and S Mirror CON 42 LAB 25 LD 12 UKIP 10 Over the past week YouGov, Ipsos-MORI and now ComRes have found UKIP in fourth place. Partly this is down to the LDs advancing and partly to UKIP’s shares slipping. LAB, meanwhile is now a colossal 17% behind in very serious trouble indeed. Things don’t look good for Corbyn’s team in the May round of local and Mayoral elections. Since Corbyn was re-elected as leader last September…

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Next Prime Minister: Gus O’Donnell at 250/1?

Next Prime Minister: Gus O’Donnell at 250/1?

Time to think about some contingency planning The last few years have seen a profusion of long-odds political bets come in. When they have, it’s been because the bookies, the punters or both have misread the electorate, the candidate(s) or the process. I think there’s another outside opportunity now. This week’s Budget cannot in any sense be regarded as priming the Conservatives for a snap election. Presumably, Philip Hammond didn’t anticipate quite the reaction to his NIC proposals that did…

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Theresa May should not be allowed to create any new peers until GE2015 expenses fraud allegations have been resolved

Theresa May should not be allowed to create any new peers until GE2015 expenses fraud allegations have been resolved

CON whistleblowers accuse party of 'huge betrayal' of electorate over GE2015 expenses. Latest from @MichaelLCrick https://t.co/ItYi8ezm5H — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2017 There’s lots of talk that Theresa May is planning to create a big batch of new CON peers to deal with the problems her government is having with the upper house. But let us not forget that the formal investigations by the police and the Electoral Commission are still going into the election expenses in key marginals…

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LAB moves to 19% deficit with YouGov, drops vote share in all latest by-elections & loses seat to CON

LAB moves to 19% deficit with YouGov, drops vote share in all latest by-elections & loses seat to CON

After budget debacle, Tories slump to er… 19-point lead, highest in government for 30 yearshttps://t.co/Da8rb748dG pic.twitter.com/aH69ITa2Mf — Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) March 10, 2017 Tonight's results: one Con gain from Lab, one Con gain from UKIP, one LDem gain from Con, two Con holds. https://t.co/Q1lXVZh7PI pic.twitter.com/LNNipm8SFb — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) March 10, 2017 The Corbyn leadership disaster continues The first full post budget voting intention poll is out and YouGov in the Times finds the Tories extending the lead to 19%…

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Three reasons why I am not betting on an early general election

Three reasons why I am not betting on an early general election

The Prime Minister says there won’t be one and I believe her One thing that we have learnt about Theresa May since she took over Downing Street last July is that she does endeavour to follow the statement she makes. She has said repeatedly that there will be no election and it would appear highly opportunistic for her to go against that. It would also be out of character. Labour will not vote for one given their double digit polling…

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The Times reporting that the Tories are “deeply worried” about possible action over the GE2015 expenses investigation

The Times reporting that the Tories are “deeply worried” about possible action over the GE2015 expenses investigation

Times says Downing St fears 2015 results in up to 6 seats cld be void if prosecutions follow #C4News expenses inquiry pic.twitter.com/AjF2vWm5qn — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) March 4, 2017 Could this be another scalp for Michael Crick? The Times is reporting that the Tory GE2015 election expenses investigation, first brought to light by Channel 4`s Michael Crick, is getting to a point where charges could be be brought. “.. Downing Street is “deeply worried” about the outcome of a police…

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