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Category: General Election

Riding the surge. Betting on a Conservative landslide

Riding the surge. Betting on a Conservative landslide

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If the polls are to be believed, the Conservatives are in for a spectacular night on 8 June.  ICM, YouGov and ComRes are all reporting national leads of more than 20% for the Conservatives – YouGov and ICM three times in the last week.  Labour seem in disarray, with the gaffes and questionable decisions coming in fast and thick.  Their morale is on the floor, with Labour MPs openly refusing to endorse Jeremy Corbyn for next Prime Minister.  There is…

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Farage might be giving GE2017 a miss but expect to see him on many leaflets

Farage might be giving GE2017 a miss but expect to see him on many leaflets

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The first week of the general election campaign has been characterised by the huge move to CON in the polls and also the number of big names who would have let it be known that they are leaving the political scene. What is also becoming striking is that UKIP is mounting nothing like a campaign that we have seen in the past. The party’s made it clear that it will not stand against strongly leave CON MPs and we’ve seen…

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UKIP’s collapse gives huge boost to CON in Wales. Now 10% ahead

UKIP’s collapse gives huge boost to CON in Wales. Now 10% ahead

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The blues heads for top Welsh party for first time since 1850 The sheer scale of the disaster facing Corbyn’s Labour is brought home in the latest YouGov Welsh poll for Cardiff University and ITV. The figures are in the chart. The Welsh academic and leading authority on Welsh politics, Prof Roger Scully, comments: “Only one poll this century (in July 2009, at the very nadir of Gordon Brown’s fortunes as Prime Minister) has had Labour lower in Wales during…

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Why a 1997 style landslide or even a 1983 style landslide might not happen, but maybe a 2005 style majority of 66 could

Why a 1997 style landslide or even a 1983 style landslide might not happen, but maybe a 2005 style majority of 66 could

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Judging by the polls, the political mood, the intuition of most political watchers, and pretty much everyone in the country, sans the Corbynites, are expecting Mrs May’s Tories to win so comprehensively the only thing in doubt is which three figure number will be the size of the Tory majority, but today I’ll explain why that might be wrong, and why Mrs May could end up with just a modest double digit majority. But here are the reasons why I…

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Labour reduce the Tory lead to 23% with YouGov in the most incredible polling night I can ever remember

Labour reduce the Tory lead to 23% with YouGov in the most incredible polling night I can ever remember

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  New ComRes poll for Sunday Mirror: HIGHEST TORY VOTE SHARE SINCE JAN 1991 Con 50(+4) Lab 25(-) LD 11(-) UKIP 7(-2) — Andrew Hawkins (@PigsAndPolling) April 22, 2017 ComRes for Sunday Mirror: T May has higher best PM rating than Corbyn, Farron & Nuttall combined — Andrew Hawkins (@PigsAndPolling) April 22, 2017 If this poll is as wrong in the other direction as the polls in 2015, 1992 and 1970 *put together*, Tories still have more seats than Labour…

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Opinium sees the Tory lead up 10% in a week to 19%. Labour are on course for an absolute hammering if the polls are right

Opinium sees the Tory lead up 10% in a week to 19%. Labour are on course for an absolute hammering if the polls are right

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New @OpiniumResearch Con 45 (+7) Lab 26 (-3) LD 11 (+4) UKIP 9 (-5) Changes since last week. FW 19/20 Aprilhttps://t.co/JDBaJ9a0K2 — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 22, 2017 Since Theresa May announced the general election, we’ve had three polls, with leads of 21%, 24%, and now 19% for the blues. The trend is not Labour’s friend. We might need to come up with a new adjective for  just how rubbish Corbyn is. This poll presages an absolute shellacking for Labour. If…

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Being realistic on the prospects for Lib Dem gains

Being realistic on the prospects for Lib Dem gains

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Alastair Meeks takes a hard look The Lib Dems’ emblem is the liberty bird.  In 2015, it was put on the critically endangered list, found only in eight locations where volunteers toiled night and day to protect it from poachers.  Pundits, including me, gloomily pondered whether extinction was on the cards. It’s a compelling case study how climate change is not necessarily bad for everyone.  In the wake of Brexit, the Lib Dems have found a new purpose as the…

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Yvette Cooper moves into favourite slot as Corbyn’s successor

Yvette Cooper moves into favourite slot as Corbyn’s successor

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Yvette Cooper now betting favourite to succeed Corbyn pic.twitter.com/H1UNRl2t4R — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2017 But being the most capable within LAB not always an advantage especially if you are a woman At PMQs on Wednesday there was no doubt about the best intervention from the opposition benches. It was from Yvette Cooper the former cabinet minister and contender in the leadership election after Labour’s defeat in 2015. Her point, questioning the reasons for the election, was strong and…

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