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Category: General Election

A Labour view of the party’s looming electoral disaster

A Labour view of the party’s looming electoral disaster

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Don Brind looks at landslides past I have a soft spot for Lib Dem peer Dick Taverne even though I cut my teeth as a Labour Party press officer trying to end his political career. His letter to the Guardian this week struck a chord. “Mrs May is riding high, apparently heading for a general election triumph, idolised by the tabloids for defying those beastly Europeans who seek to do Britain down. Today’s winners often end up as tomorrow’s losers,”…

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A prolonged suspension of the campaign at this critical stage is bad for democracy

A prolonged suspension of the campaign at this critical stage is bad for democracy

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The GE2017 campaign should be resumed by Thursday at the latest We are just two weeks and two days from the General Election and next week, with the Spring bank holiday, sees large numbers, particularly parents of school age children, going away. It was right that campaign activities were suspended by the parties today but things need to be restored in order to allow the proper scrutiny ahead of this huge political decision that the nation will be taking. Michael…

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GE2017 campaign suspended though what that means is hard to say

GE2017 campaign suspended though what that means is hard to say

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Juncker: "We will work side by side… to fight back against those who seek to destroy our way of life" #manchester https://t.co/mYk0A2gIEN — Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) May 23, 2017 The awful events in Manchester last night have inevitably caused the general election campaign to be paused. All parties are saying that campaigning activity is being suspended. The LDs, for instance, have told activists that until further notice, public campaigning activity – that includes canvassing, campaigning online, leaflet delivery and any…

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Marf on GE2017 looking a bit more competitive and TMay’s “social care” turnaround

Marf on GE2017 looking a bit more competitive and TMay’s “social care” turnaround

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As well as what’s being described as a U-turn over her manifesto pledge on social care there’ve been two new polls during the day all showing LAB making progress. The one that has shown the biggest move is the YouGov Wales poll for ITV. The figures, if repeated, suggest that LAB’s lead over CON is now greater than it was at GE2015 in the Principality. Via @roger_scully LAB sees huge surge in latest YouGov Wales poll LAB 44%+9CON 34%-7PC 9%-2LD…

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Survation phone poll has CON lead down 10 points in a week to 9% now

Survation phone poll has CON lead down 10 points in a week to 9% now

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Tory “squeaky bum time”? Maybe not yet Since TMay launched her CON manifesto last Thursday we have had just three published polls where all or part of the fieldwork took place afterwards – the Sunday Times YouGov, the Mail on Sunday Survation online poll and now, this morning, a Survation phone poll for Good Morning Britain. We’ve seen the same direction in all of them – a narrowing of the Conservative lead. This latest Survation has with changes on last…

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CON drops 9 seats on the spread-betting markets following the first post manifesto polling

CON drops 9 seats on the spread-betting markets following the first post manifesto polling

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CON spreads down 9 on @SportingIndex 383-390 https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 … … … … … … …& Spreadex 384-391 https://t.co/WTy5ixtSxJ … … … … … … — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2017 Spread betting is the form of gambling for those with deep pockets that are ready to take big risks and are attracted by the idea that the more you are right the more you win. Unfortunately the converse is the case. The more you are wrong the more you…

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Suddenly this election becomes a lot more difficult to call – maybe not a CON landslide after all

Suddenly this election becomes a lot more difficult to call – maybe not a CON landslide after all

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Sun Will TMay get her landslide or could the result be a lot tighter? The launching of the Conservative manifesto on Thursday has changed the whole narrative of this election. From a situation where the only real outcome that appeared possible was a very substantial Conservative majority, certainly more than 100, we now have the first post manifesto polls with the gap closing sharply. It was very bold of the Prime Minister and her team to include items within the…

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Steve Fisher’s model finds betting markets more pro-CON and anti-LAB than other projections

Steve Fisher’s model finds betting markets more pro-CON and anti-LAB than other projections

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Elections Etc At a polling conference ahead of GE2015 Prof Phil Cowley of Queen Mary University told me that it was wise not to doubt Oxford’s Prof Steve Fisher when it came to election numbers. Alas I didn’t take any notice then! Fisher’s calculations were then pointing to a CON majority well ahead of just about everybody else and, of course, he was vindicated. Earlier this month Steve had another good set of elections with the locals and this time…

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