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Category: General Election

Hung Parliaments are becoming the norm and we have to get used to it

Hung Parliaments are becoming the norm and we have to get used to it

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Inevitably it means governments that are weak and limited The British political system has a reputation for producing strong governments. It is often seen as one of its virtues. For a long time, it was true. From December 1918, the first election in which women could vote, until February 1974, a single party had a majority in the House of Commons for all bar 3 years 3 months of that period. Times have moved on, though many seem not to…

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Theresa’s Tories still being hit by the GE2017 branding gamble

Theresa’s Tories still being hit by the GE2017 branding gamble

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No post election poll has matched the CON election share which itself was seen as a disappointment It was noticing the photograph above of the Conservative battle bus at the general election that reminded me what a huge gamble the blue team made at the last election by putting everything on Theresa May. Notice that on the bus the words Conservative or Tory don’t appear. The election was going to be all about Theresa but as it turned out by…

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The good news for TMay’s successor is that her party’s due to exceed expectations next time

The good news for TMay’s successor is that her party’s due to exceed expectations next time

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The pattern appears to be clear One of the great things about monitoring election betting is that it gives you a good indication of what expectations were at a particular time and these can be interesting to look back at. The above is taken from what the spread betting seat levels were immediately before the five general elections since the millennium. As is shown in the chart the Tories seem to alternate between exceeding expectations or falling short of them….

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When TMay apologists try to excuse her GE17 humiliation by bragging about increased CON vote share show them this chart

When TMay apologists try to excuse her GE17 humiliation by bragging about increased CON vote share show them this chart

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It’s the relationship with the LAB vote that matters In the run up to the CON conference at the start of October you are going to hear a lot about about how the Tory national vote share on June 8th went up to levels higher than Mrs Thatcher achieved with the implication that it wasn’t quite as bad as might appear. This is a desperate effort to try to whitewash TMay’s disastrous decision to go to the country three years…

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The August 2017 silly season continues – Ladbrokes now taking bets on “the Democrats” for the next General Election

The August 2017 silly season continues – Ladbrokes now taking bets on “the Democrats” for the next General Election

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https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/897098640631754753 https://twitter.com/MikeH_PR/status/897085138626019328 The party doesn’t even exist yet I’m always impressed by the way bookies can sometimes create markets that appear to be designed to appeal to the wishful thinking of some punters. Today sees Ladbrokes offering 250/1 on the “Democrats” , currently a theoretical party suggested in a Tweet by James Chapman, winning most seats at the next general election. Much as personally I want to remain in the EU I’m not tempted by the bet. Mike Smithson Follow…

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In spite of her general election humiliation TMay still leads in the “who’d make the best PM” polling

In spite of her general election humiliation TMay still leads in the “who’d make the best PM” polling

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Corbyn isn’t seen as an alternative There’s little doubt that if the general election had been on May 4th, local election day, then Mrs. May would have got her landslide. The general election polling that was coming out at the time with leads of 15%/20% was broadly reflected in the way that the country voted in the range of elections on that day. The build up to that Thursday, and her dramatic visit to the Palace on May 3rd and…

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The key battlegrounds for next time – whenever that is

The key battlegrounds for next time – whenever that is

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The above charts are taken from an excellent new paper just published by the Commons Library and is available to download. This will certainly be a key resource for punters at the next election. They show the most marginal seats for the three main parties at Westminster. In the case of the SNP all seats are listed. We all know that there were many very tight results on June 8th and the number of seats that were held or changed…

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Amber Rudd moves to joint 3rd CON leader favourite following speculation that she’s got Ruth Davidson’s backing

Amber Rudd moves to joint 3rd CON leader favourite following speculation that she’s got Ruth Davidson’s backing

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The big unknown is whether there’ll be an early contest There’s been a flurry of speculation over Amber Rudd’s leadership chances following her trip to Scotland and a private meeting with the Scottish Tory leader, Ruth Davidson. Davidson is seen as a key player in the party election whenever that takes place following the Tory Scottish successes on June 8th. Those gains helped offset some of the losses to LAB in England. This is from James Forsyth in the Sun….

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