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Category: General Election

What I’m hoping to tell the House of Lords next week about the polling fail at the general election

What I’m hoping to tell the House of Lords next week about the polling fail at the general election

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Some thoughts on what I might say A week today I’ll be travelling to Westminster where I have been invited to give evidence before the House of Lords Committee that’s carrying out a review of what went wrong with GE2017 polls. Depending on the questioning by their Lordships I expect to make the point that the campaign had been dominated by the CON landslide narrative that had been reinforced by the May 4th local and mayoral elections where the Tories…

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Ex-Tory chairman Shapps “leading the rebels working to oust TMay”

Ex-Tory chairman Shapps “leading the rebels working to oust TMay”

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Former CON chairman under Cameron, Grant Shapps says that TMay should quit and new leader be electedhttps://t.co/cDyDE3iTGW pic.twitter.com/kQoiVapsna — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 6, 2017 Meanwhile YouGov finds the country divided over TMay staying YouGov Times poll taken since TMay's conference speech finds 39% saying she should stay and 38% saying she should go — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 6, 2017 So the battle for the future of the Conservative Party is now on with senior figures ready to go…

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TMontgomerie says BoJo would be a massive roll of the dice but better than slow death under TMay

TMontgomerie says BoJo would be a massive roll of the dice but better than slow death under TMay

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To switch or not to switch In the end BJohnson’s much anticipated conference speech was totally on message and it was hard to find even the most minuscule of difference with the PM. For just about the first time the conference hall was packed and the delegates seemed to be enjoying themselves. But it wasn’t one of the ex-Mayor’s greatest speeches. He had some good jokes and his close was rather subdued and almost took the audience by surprise. Maybe…

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The TMay successor betting moves to BJohnson after suggestions that DDavis no longer interested

The TMay successor betting moves to BJohnson after suggestions that DDavis no longer interested

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And ARudd “hires Crosby” to help her defend Hastings Boris Johnson, who just over a month ago had been down at 6% in the next CON leader betting has now moved back sharply and is 17% clear favourite following reports that David Davis will no longer want it. Second in line is Jacob Rees-Mogg who’s fringe meeting in Manchester yesterday attracted huge amount of publicity particularly the way that he handled a heckler. He is at 12%. Perhaps the most…

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Nearly two in three voters don’t approve of the way the government is handling the Brexit negotiations

Nearly two in three voters don’t approve of the way the government is handling the Brexit negotiations

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Several pollsters are tracking how the public is viewing the Brexit negotiations and the latest, from ORB shows a sharp net decline in approval. Given the importance of this single job to the TMay minority government it is a polling tracker that we need to keep a close eye on. Things are not helped at the moment by the apparent divide caused by the Foreign Secretary appearing to have a different view from the government. One factor is that Labour’s…

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The 5.8% increased CON GE17 vote share would’ve been a big deal if only LAB hadn’t gone up 9.8%

The 5.8% increased CON GE17 vote share would’ve been a big deal if only LAB hadn’t gone up 9.8%

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It’s straw-clutching to pretend this was a positive It has started. Senior Tories at their conference in Manchester such as Liam Fox trying to gloss over TMay’s loss of majority on June 8th by arguing that the party increased its vote share by 5.8% at the general election. This is a nonsense misleading figure unless you mention as well that the main opposition party’s votes went up by four points more – hence the loss of seats and the majority….

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The inter-generational gap: The Pinch and the Punch

The inter-generational gap: The Pinch and the Punch

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  Picture credit – The Resolution Foundation The Pinch David Willetts’ 2011 book ‘The Pinch’ came complete with the provocative subtitle “How the baby boomers took their children’s future – and why they should give it back”. His central charge was that this supersized demographic cohort had managed to concentrate much of the nation’s wealth in their own hands, especially in terms of property ownership and vocational pension entitlements. On top of this, their political power elected governments that ran deficits…

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