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Category: General Election

Move over right v left: John Curtice says the new political divide is social liberal versus social conservative

Move over right v left: John Curtice says the new political divide is social liberal versus social conservative

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Good insight by John Curtice. After Brexit, it's no longer about "left" and "right"—it's now social liberals vs social conservatives https://t.co/A7No132kDb via @prospect_uk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 18, 2017 How politics is changing There’s a fascinating new analysis of the new Divide in British politics from Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University in the latest edition of Prospect linked to in the tweet above. This is one of the big conclusions coming out of academic analysis of the referendum…

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Making Amber Rudd Tory Leader & Prime Minister might be the only way to ensure she holds her seat.

Making Amber Rudd Tory Leader & Prime Minister might be the only way to ensure she holds her seat.

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Every Tory leader since WWII has increased the Tory share of the vote in their constituency in their first general election as leader except Mrs May It appears Amber Rudd’s majority of 346 in Hastings & Rye is seen as a bar on her being Theresa May’s successor as some Tories don’t want the symbolic moment of the next general election to be the Tory PM losing their seat. Nor do they want their leader spending most of the campaign…

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For the first time since GE2017 consecutive polls have Corbyn’s Labour behind

For the first time since GE2017 consecutive polls have Corbyn’s Labour behind

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His ambivalence over Brexit impedes LAB on the biggest issue Two Westminster voting intention polls in the past 24 hours have both got the COM in the lead and of course LAB in second place. This is the first time since the general election that consecutive polls have showed this. Labour’s real problem is that it is failing to have a clear distinctive voice that resonates with the vast numbers of Labour voters Who are strongly for remain. Brexit is…

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Welcome to the new age of despair in British Brexit politics

Welcome to the new age of despair in British Brexit politics

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This’ll chime with a lot of people – right, left, leaver or remainer For the past two and a half weeks I have been semi detached from British politics being on holiday on the West Coast of the United States. I didn’t take my laptop and my main means of finding out what was happening was with my phone. So it has been something of a shock to return to find the spirit of despair and almost desperation, epitomised in…

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In late April the Tory data chief, Jim Messina, told senior Tories that his modelling pointed to a CON majority of 290

In late April the Tory data chief, Jim Messina, told senior Tories that his modelling pointed to a CON majority of 290

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Put this on your “Christmas” list I’m just back in the UK after my holiday on the West Coast of the US visiting my son, Robert, and his family who have moved to LA from London in July. Part of my holiday reading was Betting The House: The Inside Story of the 2017 Election by Tim Ross and Tom McTague which was published last month. It is an absorbing read giving a detailed account of GE2017 based on conversations with…

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Iff this is true then the chances of a 2018 general election have increased, the DUP will bring down Mrs May’s government

Iff this is true then the chances of a 2018 general election have increased, the DUP will bring down Mrs May’s government

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BREAKING: UK will concede that there will be no "regulatory divergence" on the island of Ireland on the single market and customs union, acc to a draft text seen by @rtenews — Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) December 4, 2017 Acc to one version of EU-UK draft: “In the absence of agreed solutions the UK will ensure that there continues to be no divergence from those rules of the internal market + customs union which, now or in the future, support North…

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Trying to understand why the Lib Dems aren’t doing better in the polls

Trying to understand why the Lib Dems aren’t doing better in the polls

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  The Lib Dems are still paying the price for being hollowed out in local government during the coalition years. One of the mysteries of current politics for me is how badly the Lib Dems are doing in the  polls. Since the general election every opinion poll bar one has the Lib Dems polling in the single digits when the current political terrain should be fertile for them. With Brexit being so polarising I’d have thought the only staunchly GB wide…

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Why the Tory plotters wanting to oust May need have no worries about letting Corbyn in

Why the Tory plotters wanting to oust May need have no worries about letting Corbyn in

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A new CON leader WILL NOT mean an early general election With the Sunday newspaper reports that the CON MPs plotting an early retirement for Mrs May being just 8 MPs short of the 48 required for a confidence vote we could be very close to a formal move against Mrs May. One of the big arguments that May backers and the Tory whips are apparently making to MPs is that if she goes early then it heightens the risk…

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