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Category: General Election

The little CON polling flurry has come at a bad time for the leadership plotters

The little CON polling flurry has come at a bad time for the leadership plotters

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Ideally they need LAB moving forward across the board We are living in a time when much of the talk at Westminster continues to be how many CON MPs have written to Graham Brady, 1922 Committee chair, asking for a vote of confidence to be held on Mrs. May. Once he’s received 48 of these Brady has to immediately set up a leadership ballot. The last time the process was invoked MPs were voting within 24 hours. My guess is…

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Marginal improvements. Looking at the reliability of seat predictions from polls

Marginal improvements. Looking at the reliability of seat predictions from polls

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Last week, Mike Smithson noted the Conservatives seem to have an in-built advantage in the electoral system over Labour – if they got an equal number of votes, the Conservatives could expect about 15 seats more than Labour even if Labour had a 0.5% lead in the polls, if Electoral Calculus is to be believed. That begs the question whether seats are likely to move consistently at the next election in the way that seat predictors assume. Let’s have a…

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As she leaves for China TMay says she’s not a quitter and will lead party into GE2022

As she leaves for China TMay says she’s not a quitter and will lead party into GE2022

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How's this going to go down with CON. MPs? She insists that she'll fight next election https://t.co/3BFYNssbe4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2018 At least this could bring things to a head With all the talk about the number of letters going to Graham Brady demanding a confidence vote in Mrs Mays leadership she has responded by making it very clear that her intention is to see it out until the next general election. This flies in the face…

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Ex-YouGov President, Peter Kellner, raises doubts about the “No GE17 Youthquake” claims

Ex-YouGov President, Peter Kellner, raises doubts about the “No GE17 Youthquake” claims

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For those who have been following the BES report that concludes that there was no “youthquake” at GE17 the former President of YouGov, Peter Kellner, makes some controversial observations in Prospect casting doubt on the core conclusion that has made the headlines. He writes: “…their (BES) latest pronouncement goes way beyond what their data can support. They base their analysis on two post-election, face-to-face surveys after the 2015 and 2017 general elections. Their sample size in 2015 was 2,987; in…

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Part 2 of why the Tories should not fear Corbyn becoming PM in the foreseeable future

Part 2 of why the Tories should not fear Corbyn becoming PM in the foreseeable future

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CON MPs are not passing away at anything like the rate they used to Given the tightness of Mrs. May’s parliamentary position one way that could get Corbyn close to number ten is if LAB could pick up seats off CON in by-elections. There’s a good precedent. At GE1992 John Major surprised just about everyone by holding onto power with a majority of 20. Unfortunately for him that was not going to be enough and during the period of that…

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Graham Brady – 1922 committee chairman and the only one who knows how safe TMay is

Graham Brady – 1922 committee chairman and the only one who knows how safe TMay is

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But should he have let his own views known? Pictured above is Graham Brady, Chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee and MP for Altrincham & Sale – which is just down the road from Old Trafford where Manchester’s second football team plays. Under Tory party rules 48 MPs have to write letters to Brady to trigger a confidence vote in the leader. This process was last used in 2003 when IDS got the chop and Michael Howard took over. What…

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Why Tories are wrong to fear that Corbyn could become Prime Minister in the foreseeable future – part 1

Why Tories are wrong to fear that Corbyn could become Prime Minister in the foreseeable future – part 1

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There isn’t going to be an early general election Labour came out of the last election 56 seats short of the Tories and the MP totals of other parties barely make up the gap particularly as Sinn Fein don’t take up their seats. This situation eas exacerbated by the Conservative-DUP no confidence vote agreement. As the law stands at the moment there are only two ways that an election can take place before 2022. The first would require the Conservatives…

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Winning where? The Lib Dem targets for 2022

Winning where? The Lib Dem targets for 2022

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Alastair Meeks looks at the challenges facing Cable’s party Three years ago, the Lib Dems were still in government. Danny Alexander and Nick Clegg comprised half of the quad, the inner circle that fixed the government’s direction. It feels like a lifetime ago now. The Lib Dems were reduced to 8 MPs in 2015 and recovered only to 12 MPs last year (with a slight decline in vote share nationally), despite being the only party to advocate remaining in the…

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