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Category: General Election

Case Not Proven: The suggestion that there’s been a LAB>CON shift amongst women

Case Not Proven: The suggestion that there’s been a LAB>CON shift amongst women

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This has only been picked up by YouGov With the apparent sharpish shifts that we’ve seen in recent days in the polls to the Conservatives there has, inevitably, been a lot of examination of the detailed data. One thing that’s featured is there’s said to have been a noticeable move by women voters from LAB to CON who, in recent times, have mostly leaned more to Labour. This has led to a lot of speculation as to why this has…

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The star who plays a LAB MP in tonight’s new BBC political thriller is worried about state of the party

The star who plays a LAB MP in tonight’s new BBC political thriller is worried about state of the party

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Why Don Brind thinks he shouldn’t be David Mars is a Labour MP worried about the state of his party and at odds with his leader. Described as a “frustrated but hard-working member of the shadow cabinet” the central character in tonight’s BBC2 thriller Collateral “despairs at the state of the Labour Party and many of its policies .. he’s not afraid to be outspoken and on more than one occasion he finds himself in hot water with the party…

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A third pollster now reports that TMay’s Tories are in the lead

A third pollster now reports that TMay’s Tories are in the lead

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Wikpedia This’ll make it harder to oust TMay After a period since the Jube general election when LAB toppped just about every published poll there’s been a sharp change in February. Latest out is Opinium for tomorrow’s Observer. These are e numbers with changes on last month. CON 42 (+2) LAB 39 (-1) LDt 7 (+1) UKIP 5 (n/c) So three separate polling organisations all have the direction of travel moving to the blue team. This will help reinforce the…

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Eight months on from GE17 how LAB doing is performing in the polls compared with earlier main opposition parties at the same stage

Eight months on from GE17 how LAB doing is performing in the polls compared with earlier main opposition parties at the same stage

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David Cowling, the leading election analyst and former head of BBC political research, has produced an excellent paper which asks the question of why Corbyn’s Labour is not doing better in the polls. The response that is coming from the party to recent surveys is to refer back to the polling what happened on June 8th and the fact that party did better than most, though not all, of the surveys on the day itself. The concluding part of the…

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What LAB has not factored in is that TMay’s successor will get a huge polling boost and won’t surely be as bad

What LAB has not factored in is that TMay’s successor will get a huge polling boost and won’t surely be as bad

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Great news for the Tories from @StephenKB Team Corbyn is complacent about the polls & thinks that next time will be like last time https://t.co/XrhciDtzI7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2018 A new CON leader will be a very different proposition for Corbyn The New Statesman’s Stephen Bush has an excellent piece linked to above on how the red team is viewing their little polling hiccup. It is staggeringly complacent with some in the party, apparently, believing that because…

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Those from elite schools continue to dominate the betting to succeed state-educated Theresa

Those from elite schools continue to dominate the betting to succeed state-educated Theresa

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It is perhaps worth remembering that for a 40 year period, until David Cameron was elected, the Tories made a point of choosing as leaders those who were from more humble backgrounds. So general election winners Heath, Thatcher, and Major all went to state schools – the latter not even going to university. How things look so differently now as we contemplate who will succeed TMay who went to what is now a comprehensive near Oxford. Rees-Mogg and Johnson, first…

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Theresa’s Tories take a 4 point lead with YouGov – their best position in any poll since GE2017

Theresa’s Tories take a 4 point lead with YouGov – their best position in any poll since GE2017

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Times Maybe Corbyn’s LAB is paying the price for its Brexit ambivalence Threre’s a new YouGov poll in today’s Times that sees a dramatic move to the Tories. The figures are with comparisons on last week: CON 43%+1 LAB 39-3 LD 8+2 As can be seen this has been driven by LAB losing vote share – three points – with the Tories up 1 and Cable’s LDs up 2. Also in the poll TMay extended her lead over Corbyn to…

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Remember this cringe making TMay effort from GE17?

Remember this cringe making TMay effort from GE17?

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Big mistake for LAB to assume that the Tories will be piss-poor again If any CON MPs is still deciding whether or not to send Graham Brady a letter then they should check the above TMay “news conference” from the closing stages of the GE2017 campaign. This is really awful and just about sums up her awkwardness, inability to think on her feet and the struggle she has answering questions from the media – qualities that are so important for…

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