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Category: General Election

Jeremy Corbyn is an unconventional politician, the normal rules of politics and polling don’t apply to him

Jeremy Corbyn is an unconventional politician, the normal rules of politics and polling don’t apply to him

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Some underestimate just how good a campaigner Jeremy Corbyn is and crucially he likes campaigning. There’s been quite a lot of comment about Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour not polling well enough against the Tories to ensure he becomes Prime Minister after the next general election. But my hypothesis is that the only time we should judge Corbyn is during a general election campaign. I’ve got this feeling those people are once again underestimating Corbyn because he’s not a conventional politician, he’s…

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It is a big mistake to assume that the decline of UKIP means its voters automatically go to the Tories

It is a big mistake to assume that the decline of UKIP means its voters automatically go to the Tories

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Serious analysis shows this is not happening One of the big electoral assumptions that continues to be made is that the decline of UKIP means that their votes shift almost an entirety to the Conservatives. We saw this thinking big time in a run up to the June 2016 general election when people were looking at the previous results from a seat and simply adding the UKIP share to the Tory total to come to some of you as to…

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PaddyPower makes it 3/1 that TMay won’t survive beyond the end of March

PaddyPower makes it 3/1 that TMay won’t survive beyond the end of March

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And it’s 2/1 that there’ll be a general election this year A spokesman for the bookie said: “Theresa May’s time as PM has been a constant case of one step forward followed by several steps backwards – and that’s just her political viewpoints. The pressure is ramping up on May, and the odds are shortening that she’ll be ousted, prompting another General Election and – likely – another Brexit Referendum.” UK POLITICS ODDS: 2/1 General Election to be called in…

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Suddenly the money’s going on 2018 being the year of the next General Election

Suddenly the money’s going on 2018 being the year of the next General Election

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Exactly three weeks ago 2018 was rated as just a 3.8% on Betfair’s “Year of Next General Election” market. Tonight it has reached 18.3% and is now the third favourite. Clearly there is an enormous amount of political turbulence and TMay might find herself in trouble should the problems with Brexit continue but I’ve not shifted my view that the election will take place as planned in 2022. Rees-Mogg remains betting favourite for next PM. Thanks to Betdata.io for the…

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The Tory headache that no one talks about – the 3.2m GE2017 CON voters who backed Remain at the referendum

The Tory headache that no one talks about – the 3.2m GE2017 CON voters who backed Remain at the referendum

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These exceed the 2.6m GE2017 LAB leave voters by some margin We get lots of talk about Labour having to be mindful that a significant part of its voters at the last election also voted Leave in the referendum. But we don’t seem to hear much about what in terms of a percentage of the overall number of voters at the last election, the total of Conservative Remain voters exceeded them. The above chart which has been highlighted by Election…

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Why I won’t be surprised to see a general election or Corbyn become Prime Minister this year

Why I won’t be surprised to see a general election or Corbyn become Prime Minister this year

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Theresa May’s facing her political Kobayashi Maru scenario. https://t.co/lFFPp5NakY pic.twitter.com/kVfQ9IWAwt — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 25, 2018 The Sunday Times report Three cabinet ministers warned Theresa May during private talks on Brexit at her Chequers retreat last week that her government could collapse this year. Julian Smith, the chief whip, told May there was a “very real threat” that Labour could unite with 15 to 20 Tory rebels to defeat the government on their decision to rule out membership of a…

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After last week’s shock YouGov 4% CON lead LAB edges back ahead

After last week’s shock YouGov 4% CON lead LAB edges back ahead

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New YouGov poll has LAB back in the leadCON 40% -2LAB 41%+3LD 8%=UKIP 4%+1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2018 And the female split is with the red team once again Unlike last week which had big move to CON amongst women latest YouGov has females leading LAB by 8%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2018 One of the things that always seems to happen is that when a shock poll comes out it that people try to…

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The hard way. Gaining votes is not enough

The hard way. Gaining votes is not enough

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In some ways, the 2017 election went as expected for the Conservative party. When the election was called on 18 April, the seven polls that had been published so far that month had averaged 43.3%. When the election was held on 8 June, the Conservatives tallied 42.4%. Any soothsayer would have been happy with that degree of accuracy. This represented a net increase of 5.5% of the vote share on the 2015 result. Clearly the Conservative message gathered new recruits….

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