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Category: General Election

To election junkies like me the Cambridge Analytica stuff is fascinating but where is it going to lead?

To election junkies like me the Cambridge Analytica stuff is fascinating but where is it going to lead?

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Isn’t it just election losers seeking to undermine the legitimacy of results? Given the amount of publicity the Cambridge Analytica story has had over the past few days both in the UK and in the US the big question is where is this all going to lead politically? The Westminster SNP leader, Ian Blackford, used both his allocated PMQ questions in the clip shown above. In the US are the revelations going to make it that bit harder for Mr…

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If its Corbyn versus May again next time my money would be on the Tories

If its Corbyn versus May again next time my money would be on the Tories

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Tories now back as odds-on favourites We could be more than four years away from the next general election and it is possible that neither Corbyn or Theresa May will be leading the parties by then. But if the two were to be the main party leaders next time, whenever that is, my money would be on the Conservatives. Firstly it is always the case that we look at elections through the prism of what happened last time rather than…

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Oh those Russians, you may have just ended the Labour party as we know it

Oh those Russians, you may have just ended the Labour party as we know it

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I suspect FPTP will stop this from happening. https://t.co/DYqNOdGvsl pic.twitter.com/34N2QPGk9G — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 18, 2018 That and the fact that they've failed to split away about 5 times already. — Martin Hoscik (@MartinHoscik) March 18, 2018 Today’s Sunday Times report Senior Labour MPs appalled by Jeremy Corbyn’s performance over the Salisbury poisoning have been in secret talks with the Liberal Democrats and at least one Conservative MP about forming a new political party called Start Again. Plans for a…

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If the DUP can make Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland then we shouldn’t rule them out making Corbyn Prime Minister

If the DUP can make Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland then we shouldn’t rule them out making Corbyn Prime Minister

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A Brexit deal that separates the Six Counties from the rest of the UK could rupture the DUP and Tory alliance for years. Over the last few years many observers on politics, myself included, have made assumptions that turned out be very wrong. Lib Dem incumbency would save them from a catastrophic seat loss in 2015, the electorate wouldn’t vote to make themselves poorer by Leaving the European Union, and Jeremy Corbyn’s backstory & a divided Labour party would see…

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Theresa May may well yet achieve her ambition of leading her party at the next election

Theresa May may well yet achieve her ambition of leading her party at the next election

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There’s no talk now of letters calling for a confidence vote One of the features about the current Russia crisis is what it is doing to perceptions of Theresa May. The latest polling overnight showing her getting huge backing from voters for the way she is handling things reflect how her approach is very much resonating with the public mood. I thought yesterday her walk-about in Salisbury contrasted so much with some of the awful public appearances at the general…

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Moving the dial. How Britain swung last year

Moving the dial. How Britain swung last year

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Mansfield, Kensington, Canterbury and Stoke-on-Trent South: when political commentators wanted to demonstrate the weird and conflicting swings that took place at the last general election, that quartet’s names kept being brought up. That’s all well and good, but there has been surprisingly little interest in the broader picture. So I have taken the time to put together a map of the swings in Britain, which you can see above. It is interactive, so you can zoom in on specific areas…

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Remember from just a year ago the polling build-up to TMay’s dramatic decision to call an election?

Remember from just a year ago the polling build-up to TMay’s dramatic decision to call an election?

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Based on these numbers a bigger majority was almost a certainty Almost whatever Mrs May does in the rest of her career she is going to go down as the PM who called an election when she had a majority and ended up without one. With the benefit of hindsight it looks like a massive mistake. Yet looking at the polling from the 6 weeks before her dramatic decision who could blame her for believing that this was a almost…

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