READ CAREFULLY Tories up a notch The big move to Labour seen in the recent ICM, NOP and CA polls has not been confirmed by the December Populus Poll in the Times. In fact there has been a small Tory recovery. The headline figures of LAB 37: CON 33: LD 20 mask a change in weightings which helpfully the pollster sets out. On the new weightings last month would have been LAB 37: CON 31: LD 21 as opposed to…
What would be a shock result on 05/05/05? In 1997 so many people had been affected by John Major’s shock victory five year’s earlier that few quite believed what the opinion polls were telling them. Received opinion had it that – yes – New Labour was going to win but very few were prepared to forecast or even bet on a landslide majority of the size that happened. The experience of the amazing shock of April 10 1992 when none…
Has Blair really not been hurt by Iraq, Kelly, and Hutton? The Independent on Sunday’s new pollster, Communicate Research, has Labour back at their 2001 General Election share according to their latest survey out today. The figures with changes on the same poll last month are CON 31 (-2), LAB 42(+2), LD 20(+3). At the last election Labour got 42%, the Tories 32.7% and the Lib Dems 18.8%. So the only change on 2001, according to CR, is a small…
Slightly better news for Michael Howard After the NOP and ICM polls showing Labour leads of 8-9% this month’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph has the margin dropping to just 3%. The figures are:- LAB 35% (-1): CON 32% (n/c): LD 23% (+1): UKIP 5% (n/c) Compared with the YouGov poll at the start of October the Labour lead has been halved. Today’s poll is also good news for the Lib Dems with it returning to its highest share…
Try this little test. Click on this link to go Upmystreet.com. Type in the postcode of a UK residential address that you want to check. Then click on the link marked ACORN PROFILE and go to “full profile” . You will then see an interesting description of how the marketing business assesses people who live there, how much they earn, what TV they watch, the things they buy and what papers they read etc. Now ask yourself whether the profile…
After three polls showing big Labour leads the betting markets have now caught up a little with the number of predicted Labour seats at the election increasing and the Tory numbers declining. At IG the spreads are LAB 345-353: CON 194-202: LD 70-74. Sportingindex, meanwhile have LAB 344-352: CON 202-210: LD 70-74.. These are big differences between the two firms with IG attracting more Labour money and SI, seemingly, getting more pro-Tory bets. What could affect the prices is the…
Are gamblers ignoring massive betting value? The spate of polls showing Labour shares in the late 30s with leads of upto 9% has, as expected, led to prices moving on the spread betting markets where punters gamble on how many seats each party will get at the General Election. SportingIndex have now shaved more off the Tories and increased Labour:- LAB 344-352 (+2): CON 202-210 (-2): LD 70-74 (n/c). Yet the prices are not back to the levels of late…
The statistics they never tell you As we predicted yesterday’s ICM poll in the Guardian pushed up Labour prices and depressed Tory ones on the spread, seat and overall winner markets. The latest IG spreads are:- LAB 342-350 (+2): CON 198-206 (-2): LD 69-73 (+1). SportingIndex is LAB 342-350: CON 205-213: LD 70-74 – the discrepancy based on the fact that they are using the old larget House of Commons – not the new reduced sized one. The best boomaker…