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Category: General Election

The poll that “missed” two out of five Tories

The poll that “missed” two out of five Tories

Have the polls really got better? Whenever we’ve criticised polling accuracy apologists for the industry have rushed to their defence saying that techniques have improved and things have got better since 2001 when the average overstatement of the Labour lead was 6.6%. But in a recent example since then, at the Scottish Parliament Elections last year, the overstatement by the conventional pollsters of the LAB-CON margin was two percentage points bigger than the national polls at the 1992 General Election,…

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Have the Lib Dems set themselves an impossible target?

Have the Lib Dems set themselves an impossible target?

Charles Kennedy’s Catch-22 At their conference in Bournemouth in September the Lib Dems made great play of the fact that their goal was to replace the Tories as the party of opposition and they are still repeating the line, even today, which looks set to become a big plank of their General Election campaign. Given the current dynamic of the Tories remaining static and the big switch being between Labour and the LDs then the party is likely to end…

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“The Website of Choice for Real Political Anoraks”

“The Website of Choice for Real Political Anoraks”

Telegraph commentator says LDs might be a good buy We don’t know whether Tony Blair is a regular on the site yet but a feature in the Daily Telegraph today by George Trefgarne states that “For real political anoraks, the website of choice is politicalbetting.com.” Whether the thousands of users who come onto the site each day share that view of themselves we do not know but there is little doubt that a huge amount of detailed knowledge about what…

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Who benefits from the Hunting Ban delay?

Who benefits from the Hunting Ban delay?

Can Blair play it both ways? What’s going to be the electoral impact of the Government plan not to oppose the Countryside Alliance if it seeks an injunction delaying the ban on hunting? Certainly the move is in line with the thinking of ministers when they tried to push the implementation to the other side of the General Election by seeking to insert a delaying clause. But seeking to do something in Parliament is completely different from what could be…

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How Labour switching to the LDs helps the Tories

How Labour switching to the LDs helps the Tories

Will Charles Kennedy put a smile on Michael Howard’s face It’s said that Labour are going to campaign hard on the fact that if many of their supporters switch to the Lib Dems then the main beneficiary will be Michael Howard. This is a tough one for Labour to get over particuarly as Charles Kennedy’s party will be seen to be pressing the Tories hard in such seats as Michael Howard’s Folkestone and all their rhetoric will be about them…

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..and to Charles and Sarah a child will be born..

..and to Charles and Sarah a child will be born..

How will the party machines deal with the mid-campaign baby? We wonder whether Tony Blair is working into his election date decision the fact that a 05/05/05 poll would mean that Charles and Sarah Kennedy’s first child would be born right in the middle of the campaign. And with the Tories relatively static at their 2001 vote levels anything that is good for the Lib Dems is likely to be bad for Labour. The big dynamic at the coming election…

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Labour at best ICM position since the “Gilligan WMD Affair”

Labour at best ICM position since the “Gilligan WMD Affair”

If you want to bet on Labour – hurry before prices move Labour are back to 40% with ICM for the first time since the notorious Andrew Gilligan interview on the Today programme in May 2003 according to the December ICM survey in the Guardian today. The shares are:- CON 31%(+1), LAB 40%(+2), LD 21%(-1). This will be disappointing news for both the Tories and the Liberal Democrats who had both, perhaps, been hoping for a boost from the David…

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How dangerous are the Blair-Brown tensions?

How dangerous are the Blair-Brown tensions?

Can a divided party continue to win support? As the Tories have proved so effectively in the past two General Elections the electorate likes unity and is turned off by divisions in parties that are seeking their support. With the Cabinet changes following the Blunkett resignation the old tensions between Gordon Brown and Tony Blair have come to the surface again with the Brown camp said to be alarmed at Blair’s decision to install David Miliband as Alan Milburn’s deputy…

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