Not a good weekend for the Tory leader A double blow for Michael Howard this weekend looks set to put even greater pressure on the Conservative price on the General Election spread betting markets. Firstly came the news that the former Higher Education minister, Robert Jackson, has defected to the Labour party. Secondly a new Populus poll in the News of the World shows that the Tories are falling back in the key marginal seats that they need to win…
Could the former TV star be the joker in the pack? A completely unknown factor in the coming General Election is the impact of Robert Kilroy-Silk, the former Labour MP turned TV presenter turned UKIP MEP and now possibly leader of his own new party. According to the Guardian’s Backbencher column “…Kilroy’s increasingly desperate search for a political home may be about to come to an end. Having been narrowly rejected by both the English Democrats and the New Party…
Forget the Blair-Brown squabble: Blair-Bush is the one that matters With Michael Howard trying to squeeze every bit of political capital over Gordon Brown’s views of the PM’s approach to the truth punters should not forget the other of Tony Blair’s partnerships that has done far far more damage than the Tories ever can to Labour. His decision to join George Bush in the Iraqi adventure has hurt the party dear and no amount of massaging the figures can gloss…
Is this the way to a near-certain profit? One of the site’s regular contributors, Jon, has come forward with an ingenious plan that could be the nearest there is to a “sure thing” on the General Election. His idea is simple – BUY the Tories at £10 a seat, at the level 195 seats on the spread-betting markets. At the same time BACK Labour for £1000 to win most seats at the General Election at the current price of 1.18…
What if the Lib Dems gain 5% during the campaign? The big question for all those trying to forecast the 2005 General Election is will there be the traditional Lib Dem bounce? For at every General Election since 1987 the Lib Dems have enjoyed spectacular increases of support during the formal campaign – in each case taking votes from Labour. In 1992, 1997 and 2001 the party was starting from a poll position in the low and mid-teens. This time…
APOLOGIES FOR EARLIER TECHNICAL PROBLEMS The great consolation for Labour with its current problems is that the Tories remain completely stuck. The following show the average annual opinion poll ratings from ICM for the Conservatives over the past ten years and although there has been a small improvement the figures remain pretty consistent. 1995 29% 1996 30.4% 1997 29.2% (General Election 31.4%) 1998 29.6% 1999 30% 2000 32.5% (excluding petrol crisis surveys) 2001 31.25% (General Election 32.7%) 2002 31.2% 2003…
Is the Brown/Blair split costing votes? Labour has slipped 2% in the first poll of 2005 which also shows that more people want Gordon Brown to be Prime Minister than Tony Blair. This brings ICM back into the line with the other pollsters who have all shown Labour slipping back a little since November. By way of comparison the average Labour share with ICM in 2000, the year before the last General Election, was 48%. Tomorrow’s poll shows that the…
The polls look as though they will stay gloomy for the Tories Just eleven days before Christmas we said that those wanting to back Labour should do it then and those wanting to risk money on the Tories should wait. That’s proved to be good advice and since then the markets have moved in the way we thought they would. The Spreadfair Labour buy price is now 355 seats and the Tory spreads are 193-197 seats. The big drivers of…