UKIP’s decline and immigration give Howard a boost Punters who have been backing the Tories on the spread-betting markets in the past few days have been vindicated by the latest YouGov poll in the Telegraph has the party 3% up on last Sunday. The figures are: LAB 35% (+1): CON 34 (+3): LD 22 (-3): OTH 9 (-1) Interestingly the change has come from the Lib Dems and not Labour which has gone up. It might be that part of…
Is this snap election talk just that – talk? With the betting exchange, Betfair, opening a new market on whether or not the General Election will be on the widely forcast date of May 5 there’s renewed specualation this morning that a snap election might be in the offiing. This has been fuelled by Alastair Campbell making a quiet return to full-time return to politics. According to a report in the Scotsman Mr Campbell’s daily attendance at Labour’s new campaign…
Howard’s immigration plans please the punters After weeks of steady decline on the spread markets the Tory price has staged a small recovery as punters seek to get in at what they see as bargain prices. IG Index this evening marked Michael Howard’s party up two seats as punters took stock of the policy line-up on immigration and Labour’s two point drop in the Guardian ICM poll. There’s also a realisation that a Labour buy bet on 364 seat –…
Will polling inaccuaracy and tactical voting cause an upset? One of our regular contributors, Andy Cooke, produced the following well-worked out analysis of the coming election and posted it in our comments section. We think it should be given greater prominence. The volatility of this upcoming election is largely down to two major factors: Opinion Poll accuracy (or lack) – will they be closer than in 01? Tactical Voting – will it unwind, and if so, how far? On the…
What’s the “master of the dark political arts” up to? Why are the pundits and politicians taking at face value the stories that the Tories’ Australian campaign guru, Lytton Crosby (above) has allegedly told Michael Howard that the Tories cannot win? Given that the 48-year-old who was brought to the UK by the Tory leader last autumn has been described as a “master of the dark political arts†and “the Australian Karl Rove,†surely the wise course is to treat…
Are you more likely to be Labour in public than in private Today’s ICM poll in the Guardian shows no movement on the pollster’s survey for the News of the World earlier in the month but has Labour 2% down on the last Guardian poll in December. The figures are LAB 38: CON 31: LD 21 With just 100 days to go before a May 5th General Election, there’s a remarkable degree of unanimity amongst the pollsters. The telephone-based surveys…
Is it all over bar the shouting? On the assumption that Tony Blair has decided to go to the country on Thursday May 5th then this Tuesday there’ll just be 100 days to go before polling day. If you believe the conventional telephone pollsters have got it right and think that the Commons seats will be distributed on the basis of the Martin Baxter uniform national swing then there is absolutely no question about the result. Labour to win with…
Just nine points now separate the three main parties A YouGov poll to be published in the Sunday Times tomorrow sees both Labour and the Tories going down and the Lib Dems moving up to 25%. The figures showing the changes since the last YouGov poll before Christmas are: LAB 34(-1): CON 31(-1): LD 25(+2) Labour’s 34% is the lowest share from the internet pollster since August The Tories’ 31% is the second lowest share with YouGov for more than…