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Category: General Election

It is a mistake to look at the next election though the prism of the last one

It is a mistake to look at the next election though the prism of the last one

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That was why GE2017 was seen as such a shock Given what happened on June 8th last year you would have thought people would have worked out by now is that you cannot look at the next election by thinking back to the last one and applying the same sort of judgements relating to what happened. So currently you will find from many committed Corbyn supporters saying that their man is going to sail through, whatever the polls might be…

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Despite 34% voters thinking Jeremy Corbyn personally has anti-Semitic views Boris Johnson’s approval ratings are near identical to Corbyn

Despite 34% voters thinking Jeremy Corbyn personally has anti-Semitic views Boris Johnson’s approval ratings are near identical to Corbyn

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Further proof that Johnson’s going to pull out of another Tory leadership contest? I’m a fan of approval ratings as they are a very good pointers to general elections, as Mrs May’s alarming collapse in the closing stages of the 2017 general election confirmed.  So this morning’s debut poll by DeltaPoll caught my eye for this very reason. For many Tories Boris Johnson is the man to win the Tories a majority in 2022 against Corbyn but if his ratings…

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So who wants to be the British Emmanuel Macron? There’s £50 million worth of support waiting for you

So who wants to be the British Emmanuel Macron? There’s £50 million worth of support waiting for you

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Tomorrow’s Observer… In development for over a year. Former Tory and Labour donors involved. Plans for radical policies from left and right. But… will this plan for a #newparty get anywhere? ????? pic.twitter.com/A8qs4L1cGR — Michael Savage (@michaelsavage) April 7, 2018 I’m not sure £50 million is enough to overturn the inbuilt bias that FPTP gives the Tories and Labour nor the rules on election spending. Since the 23rd of June 2016 we regularly get stories about a new (centrist) party…

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Into the political void opened between Brexit Tories and Corbynite Labour there came … no-one

Into the political void opened between Brexit Tories and Corbynite Labour there came … no-one

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What’s happened to the Others? “Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government!” David Steel’s rather premature exhortation to his activists at the 1981 Liberal Conference is remembered – to the extent that it’s remembered at all – as a classic example of over-optimism verging into hubris. It shouldn’t be. For a brief moment, there really was a genuine chance that the old Lab-Con dominance had been broken. At the last poll before the conference, the SDP-Liberal Alliance had…

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The continuing strength of the SNP makes it is harder for Corbyn to become PM

The continuing strength of the SNP makes it is harder for Corbyn to become PM

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Scottish turbulence not good for the red team Today’s YouGov LAB members has one finding that shows the extraordinary optimism of those who backed Corbyn in the last leadership election. 80% of them told the poster that they believed that Mr Corbyn would at sometime become Prime Minister. Given his age and the current parliamentary situation that essentially means waiting till the next general election and requires two things to happen – Corbyn to retain the leadership and LAB to…

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This March looks like being the first month since GE2017 when there were more CON lead polls than LAB ones

This March looks like being the first month since GE2017 when there were more CON lead polls than LAB ones

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Has the GE17 effect finally petered out? The above chart based on the Wikipedia table of published voting intention polls is a different way of looking at trends in political opinion. What is shown here is the percentage of polls that had a Labour leads each month and the percentage of published polls that had the Conservatives ahead. The surveys included are the GB ones and do not include the regional polls such as the Scotland/Wales/London specific ones. The chart…

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That Survation 7% LAB lead poll looks very much the outlier – but then so did the firm’s final GE2017 survey

That Survation 7% LAB lead poll looks very much the outlier – but then so did the firm’s final GE2017 survey

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Wikipedia Looking at all the published polls for 2018 that Survation 7% lead survey a couple of weeks back looks and very much out of place. The other best polls for LAB this year were a Survation 3% lead one in January and a similar margin in Ipsos-MORI phone survey with fieldwork starting three days beforehand. In normal circumstances we would just regard the latest Survation as one on its own and concentrate on the latest ICM/Opinium/YouGov which have CON…

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The bad news for LAB from Prof John Curtice – Corbyn has NOT solved its turnout problem

The bad news for LAB from Prof John Curtice – Corbyn has NOT solved its turnout problem

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Relying on previous non-voters not a viable winning strategy The conclusion from John Curtice’s new analysis: After the collapse in turnout in the 2001 election (and, indeed, in local elections held at the same time) considerable concern was expressed about the apparent disengagement of voters from the electoral process. A particular source of worry for some was the marked decline in turnout amongst the latest generation of new voters who, it was feared, might now never adopt the habit of…

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