Anybody would think that there’s an election coming up! With the bookies trying to repeat the bonanza they enjoyed with the US presidential race lots of effort is going on to create betting interest on May 5, if that is when it is. The challenge is that unlike last November the UK election is seen as a foregone conclusion – the only question at issue being the size of Blair’s majority. IG Index has just opened this a a spread…
Betting opens on Folkestone How well will the Lib Dems do with their decapitation target number one – Michael Howard? Do they have any chance at all making serious inroads into the Tory leader’s majority in Folkestone? If you think that they do then a new market offers 2/1 against the Tory leader’s majority being cut. It’s 4/11 on Howards majority increasing. So the LDs don’t have to take the seat – just reduce the majority There is a similar…
Both the Tories and Labour advance Communicate Research’s monthly poll for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday shows only minor changes from last month for the two main parties. The headline figures are LAB 41%(+1):CON 34%(+2): LD 17%(-3) This equals the lowest poll figure for more than a year for Charles Kennedy’s party and reflects that all the recent campaign skirmishes have been between the two main parties. CR do not prompt for party choice and do not weight on previous vote…
Mori’s 37% Tory share gives market a boost Today’s Mori poll in the FT has led, inevitably, to money going on the Tories in the spread-betting markets. The shares of LAB 39: CON 37: LD 18 are the best for Michael Howard’s party for years and were only exceeded in the strange circumstances of the 2000 petrol crisis and in the aftermath of David Kelly’s death in 2003. Following on from the improved figures from ICM earlier in the week…
Are Labour’s campaign tactics working? The February MORI poll for the Financial Times has the Tories up 5% to one of their highest levels for a long time. The vote shares with comparisons to the January survey are:- LAB 39: CON 37 (+5): LD 18 (-4). The move to the Tories is in line with the ICM poll on Tuesday and seems partly at the expense of “others” which would appear to be down at 6% – reflecting a big…
Will voters care about today’s Guardian revelations? The extent to which the Iraq war will be a General Election issue could be tested by revelations in the Guardian today that the Attorney General, Lord Goldsmith QC, warned Prime Minister Tony Blair less than two weeks before the invasion that military action could be deemed illegal. According to the report, the Government was so concerned that it might be prosecuted that it set up a team of lawyers to prepare for…
Why is Howard beating Blair for female support? With the betting markets moving a notch to the Tories following the Guardian ICM survey further information from the poll, now available, shows the potential big gender gap at the coming election. Interviewees were asked to rate whether a number of leading politicians were “an asset or a liability to their party”. Tony Blair came out with a rating of 45-43 in favour – but there was a huge difference between the…
Is Howard’s campaigning having an impact? The February ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow shows that Labour’s lead has dropped to 3%. The vote shares with changes on the same poll last month are: LAB 37 (-3) : CON 34 (+3) : LD 21 (n/c). For the Tories this is the best position with ICM since March last year and suggests that Michael Howard’s high-profile initiatives on crime and immigration are making an impact. For Labour the poll will be…