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Category: General Election

The pollster that got GE2017 most right now has CON in the lead

The pollster that got GE2017 most right now has CON in the lead

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Trend chart of Survation voting intention polls since GE17 pic.twitter.com/Eted64NFaQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 11, 2018 Tories take the lead with Survation – the pollster that's been showing the best figures for LABCON 41% +1 LAB 40% = LD 8% -1 UKIP 3% = SNP 3% = GRE 2% +1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 11, 2018 Ever since the general election when Survation came closest to getting the final outcome right there has been a special regard for…

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‘Peak Corbyn’ is a myth providing false reassurance to his opponents

‘Peak Corbyn’ is a myth providing false reassurance to his opponents

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Last week’s local elections were underwhelming for Labour, writes Keiran Pedley but that does not mean Labour is heading for defeat. As the dust settles on the 2018 local elections, it is clear that Labour did not hit the heights that they hoped to hit. A very strong showing in London offset somewhat by a frustrating lack of progress for the party in the rest of the country. The projected national vote share produced by the BBC suggested a tie,…

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New YouGov polling finds that ex-Londoners are more likely to vote LAB even after they’ve left

New YouGov polling finds that ex-Londoners are more likely to vote LAB even after they’ve left

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NEW POLL – Been working with @election_data looking at how ex-Londoners (those that moved out of London in past 5 years ) voted in the last couple of elections. TLDR – They swung towards Labour https://t.co/aL2xQh8hLU pic.twitter.com/ru4hw0cvAS — Chris Curtis (@chris__curtis) May 9, 2018 Moving out doesn’t make voters more inclined to the blues We all know that London votes in a very different pattern for the rest of the country with a much higher proportion of residents backing the…

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Tomorrow is the third anniversary of David Cameron winning a majority, here’s a few charts for your perusal

Tomorrow is the third anniversary of David Cameron winning a majority, here’s a few charts for your perusal

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It appears some people need educating on what a good electoral performance is & how it compares to past results, well I'm here to help. Especially with tomorrow being the third anniversary of Cameron winning a majority. The last time the parties won a majority 1/3 pic.twitter.com/QwmfiXvqJP — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 6, 2018 The last time the parties won a working majority. 2/3 pic.twitter.com/9McVuZLsXe — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 6, 2018 Assuming the next general election is in 2022 by then…

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Has Labour lost its momentum?

Has Labour lost its momentum?

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Are we past Peak Corbyn or was LE2018 just a bump in the road? You can tell a lot about how well a party has done by where a leader goes to celebrate their election victories. Theresa May (no doubt unwittingly) re-emphasised her caution-first nature by travelling all the way to Wandsworth: a council the Tories have held since 1978. She could have gone to Nuneaton, where the Tories stripped Labour of a sizable majority (unlike Wandsworth, where it was…

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Exactly a year ago this weekend ComRes had TMay’s Tories 25% ahead

Exactly a year ago this weekend ComRes had TMay’s Tories 25% ahead

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How things have changed since It is just a year since Theresa May made her fateful and what will be her career defining announcement about calling a general election to secure a bigger majority. On the weekend after the news we had the initial round of voting intention polls of the campaign and those are shown in the chart above. As can be seen the one that stands out is ComRes, which had been the most accurate pollster two years…

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If TMay and Corbyn are still there at the next election then Windrush & antisemitism could still be dogging them

If TMay and Corbyn are still there at the next election then Windrush & antisemitism could still be dogging them

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These are leadership more than party issues What a dramatic few days for both the prime minister and the leader of the opposition. Two huge issues continue to dominate the news which are big negatives for each of them respectively. The Windrush affair, which is being juxtaposed with the meeting of Commonwealth leaders, is a reminder of how Theresa May handled things when she was in the Home Office from 2010 to 2016. It was under her watch that the…

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There’s the potential for Labour to get a long term polling boost because of their anti-semitism issues

There’s the potential for Labour to get a long term polling boost because of their anti-semitism issues

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Chart from polling conducted by YouGov for the Campaign against Antisemitism Older voters are more likely to endorse at least one anti-semitic statement, and remember older voters are more likely turn out to vote. Conventional wisdom suggests that Labour will take a long term hit in the polls because of the recent coverage of their anti-semitism issues but recently we’ve seen conventional wisdom proven to be very wrong, this might be another example. Before anyone accuses me saying older voters,…

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