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Category: General Election

Communicate Research puts Labour lead at 12%

Communicate Research puts Labour lead at 12%

UPDATED Sunday 8am Is Tony Blair really heading for a 174 seat majority? Today’s Independent on Sunday survey, conducted by Communicate Research, puts Labour at a level that is higher than it achieved in the 2001 landslide and gives the party a lead of 12% over the Conservatives that would on the Martin Baxter calculation produce a majority of 174. With just five weeks to go before a May 5 election these are sensational figures but somewhat surprisingly the IoS…

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Punters unmoved by the Flight case

Punters unmoved by the Flight case

Gamblers keep their money firmly in their pockets In spite of all the headlines and media coverage reaction on the betting markets to Howard Flight’s unguarded comments and his subsequent sacking the reaction of political gamblers has been very limited. Whatever else the affair has produced it has certainly not led to punters rushing to risk their cash by backing Labour or betting against the Tories. The most senstive barometers are the Commons seat spread-betting markets where punters buy or…

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The Flight sacking: who wins – who loses?

The Flight sacking: who wins – who loses?

The secret comments by Howard Flight revealed in the Times this morning and his subsequent removal as Tory candidate at Arundel at the election have made for a lively Good Friday. It was good to see Labour moving quickly with their hastily arranged press conference providing John Reid, Ruth Kelly and Alan Milburn the opportunity to get election campaign onto the territory that Labour wants – the danger of Tory spending cuts. It was also good to see Michael Howard’s…

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Labour’s YouGov lead down 4% in a week

Labour’s YouGov lead down 4% in a week

Another poll shows its getting very close Today’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph is in line with other recent polls and shows that the gap between the main parties is narrowing. The shares with comparisons from the Sunday Times YG poll five days ago are:- CON 34(+2): LAB 35(-2): LDEM 22 (-1). Last weekend’s YG poll in the Sunday Times was taken in the immediate aftermath of Gordon Brown’s budget while the big political issue during this survey was…

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ICM put Tories 14% ahead among 55+ women

ICM put Tories 14% ahead among 55+ women

Polling round-up With polls coming think and fast we’ve not featured an ICM survey, commissioned by Age Concern and the Fawcett Society among older women. The survey produced vote shares of CON 42%: LAB 29%: LD 21%. About one in five of those surveyed said they were still undeicided. The survey contrasts with a similar one before the 1997 General Election when 40 per cent of women over 55 backed Labour. According to a report in the Independent a key…

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MORI have Tories and Labour neck and neck

MORI have Tories and Labour neck and neck

Labour lose out to the Lib Dems This month’s MORI’s puts the two main parties next and neck and reports a big boost for the Liberal Democrats, at the expense of Labour. The figures – which are based on those certain to vote – are CON 37(nc): LAB 37 (-2): LD 20% (+2). This is the first time for six months that the Tories have not been behind Labour in a survey from one of the main polling organisations and…

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Will this election be about core votes – not swing votes?

Will this election be about core votes – not swing votes?

Will these supporters vote for Blair? Could the standard theory of General Elections being decided by which party appeals best to swing voters be turned on its head during the coming campaign? In a new article just published on the MORI website the firm’s Roger Mortimore suggests that because turnout looks like being the main issue for all the parties then those that get most of their core votes out will be the ones to succeed. And this could change…

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…and the money is going on the Tories

…and the money is going on the Tories

Are we missing something? Having not taken a four figure bet for the Conservatives to win the General Election all year, bookmakers William Hill have now taken a five figure bet for them – the biggest struck on them since Michael Howard took over – and shortened their odds as a result. Hills took the £10,000 bet at odds of 13/2 and have now cut the Conservatives to 11/2 to emerge as the largest single Party. Labour’s odds have been…

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