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Category: General Election

Can the pollsters really end their pro-Labour bias?

Can the pollsters really end their pro-Labour bias?

How would more accurate polls affect gambling? With the first post-May 5th opinion poll due out tomorrow there are encouraging signs that the polling industry is coming to grips with the issue that has dogged it for nearly half a century – the ongoing over-statement of Labour’s position which Martin Baxter calculated was 2.7% at the General Election. At a seminar last week organised by the Adam Smith Institute a panel consisting of myself and representatives from MORI, YouGov and…

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Did the “Labour dirty tricks” film tell us anything new?

Did the “Labour dirty tricks” film tell us anything new?

Was the billing bigger than the content? Over the past few days there’s been a lot of hype about tonight’s Dispatches documentary on Channel 4 in which a young worker, Jenny Kleeman (above) was “planted” in Labour’s London press office to find out how Tony Blair’s party fought the election. The Sunday Times reported yesterday that Labour party was ” braced for criticism” over the programme’s allegations of dirty tricks. The Telegraph focussed on the allegation that “Labour used its…

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Did Labour lose half a million votes in the final 48 hours?

Did Labour lose half a million votes in the final 48 hours?

Should Tony Blair have had a positive message to close on? The closing two days of the campaign were dominated by Labour’s no holds barred warning of the dangers of what could happen if one in ten party supporters did not vote or supported another party. Such was the importance of getting this message across that it devoted its entire final election broadcast on the Tuesday to the subject. The emphasis was almost 100% on the negative. Yet looking back…

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Did postal voting lead to a lower overall turnout?

Did postal voting lead to a lower overall turnout?

Why did so many on the postal list not vote? The move to extend postal voting was said to have been Labour’s “big idea” to deal with ongoing challenge that many more people say they support the party than actually vote for it. There is little hard evidence available but looking at what information we have from May 5th and hearing anecdotal reports the question has to be asked as to whether the five-fold increase in applications for postal votes…

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YouGov stakes its claim to supremacy

YouGov stakes its claim to supremacy

Will the internet polling argument ever be resolved? In a move not designed to win him any friends within the UK polling industry the boss of YouGov, Peter Kellner, has posted a strongly argued piece, under the provocative heading “YouGov – consistently right” to reinforce his claim that his firm’s approach to taking the nation’s political temperature is the right one. Although he acknowledges that all the polls were within the same area in their eve of poll prediction and…

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Our competitions – deciding the winners

Our competitions – deciding the winners

At last the Politicalbetting forecasters of 2005 are… In my introduction on May 2 to our General Election Competition I took the precaution of stating..” My rulings, however unreasonable, on all matters relating to this competition are final. I am right even when I am wrong. There are two issues which could affect the result. Was Labour’s majority 66 or 67 seats (because of the South Staffordshire situation) and how do we handle the rounding on the vote shares. A…

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Play fantasy 2009 General Election

Play fantasy 2009 General Election

Martin Baxter introduces his new calculator The former Cambridge and now city financial mathematician, Martin Baxter, has produced a new version of his famous predictor which allows the user to input suggested party shares and at the click of a mouse button produce a projected new House of Commons. For years this has been a great tool for all who like speculating about what is going to happen and it is great that Martin has got round to producing the…

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What happened to the General Election high rollers?

What happened to the General Election high rollers?

The biggest winners were the bookies – surprise, surprise In the run up to polling day we reported on a number of really big bets and it is a good reminder of the dangers of gambling to look at what happened to them. DOWN £36,000 was the £2,000 bet on a Labour majority of more that 84 seats placed on the Tuesday before polling DOWN £15,000 was the £3,000 a seat on the Liberal Democrats placed on April 11 with…

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