1 in 13 Labour supporters switch to the Tories The November YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph reports a big cut in Labour’s lead and is the first significant polling movement since the Tories started to get a lot of media attention from their leadership contest. Until today the Cameron-Davis fight had not appeared to have had an impact on the General Election voting intention of the main pollsters. All eyes will now be on ICM, Populus and Mori to…
Punters give Labour a 57% chance of winning most seats In spite of the emergence of David Cameron, the higher media profile over the leadership election and Tony Blair’s first ever Commons defeat punters still make Labour a very strong favourite to come out top at the next General Election. Our latest chart based on best betting prices shows how punters are viewing the party’s election chances whenever it is held. The implied probability of a Labour victory is, like…
The Lib Dems do 2 points better if Davis wins The Tories would only perform marginally better against Gordon Brown under David Cameron than David Davis according to an ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph this morning. If it was Brown versus Davis the split would be: Lab 41: CON 33: LD 18 If it was Brown versus Cameron the split would be: Lab 41: CON 34: LD 16 To the question of which contender would encourage “people like you”…
Chances rated at lowest level since the General Election After a week which has seen highly publicised cabinet splits over education policy and smoking and a month that has been dominated by the Tory leadership race there’s been a move against Labour on the betting markets. The chart shows the implied probability of Labour winning most seats at the next General Election based on best betting prices. A month ago Labour was rated at 66-67% – this morning the figure…
When are grads of other universities going to get a look in? The first stop on the David Davis campaign trail was to his old university – Warwick – a move designed to make the point that he was not part of the Tory Oxford “mafia” which has been dominating leadership battles for decades. A month ago when Cameron seemed out of the race it looked as though the Tory showdown would be between Clarke of Cambridge and Davis. Then…
But Cameron 15% ahead amongst “floating voters” In spite of all the Tory publicity of recent weeks Labour is still on target for a comfortable fourth General Election victory according to ICM in the Guardian this morning – a view backed by the betting markets where Labour is the 0.63/1 favourite. The pollster’s October survey shows the party shares at CON 33: LAB 36: LD 22 – the Labour lead is down 4 points on the month A Gordon Brown…
The Great Conjurer takes another issue away from the Tories When Tony Blair finally does step down as leader the one thing his party will surely miss is his extraordinary ability to foresee and to deal with issues that leave them vulnerable to Tory attacks. Right from the Clause 4 abolition in the mid-90s to agreeing last year to the EU constitutional referendum one sensitive issue after another has been closed down by smart changes in Labour policy. Tony Blair…
versus ? Is Labour set to lose its overall majority in 2009? Even though we are probably four years away from the next UK General Election betting has already started although few punters seem to have been tempted to lock up their money so far ahead. On the Spreadfair betting exchange the latest spreads are LAB 311-316 seats: CON 239-244: LD 59.5-62 . On the conventional markets the best Labour price on which party will win most seats is 2/5…