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Category: General Election

Does demonising the Tories work any more?

Does demonising the Tories work any more?

The week when Labour stopped being General Election favourite A hugely significant betting moment during the week when, almost certainly for the first time since 1992, the Tories became favourite to win the following General Election. The Betfair “Labour winning most sears” price is 1.02/1 compared with 0.98/1 for the Toires. What’s interesting is that this change has taken such a long time coming. Throughout the past few months of cash for peerages, Tessa Jowell, and the foreign prisoners affair…

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Lib Dems at lowest YouGov level since February

Lib Dems at lowest YouGov level since February

Could new poll put further pressure on Ming? The May YouGov poll in the Telegraph has the following shares with comparisons on the last survey by the pollster two weeks ago CON 38 (+1): LAB 32 (+1): LD 16 (-1). So all the main pollsters with the regular monthly newspapers slots – YouGov, Populus and ICM – put Cameron’s Conservatives on the same level of support – 38% – and this is starting to look fairly robust. But a 38%…

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Can Labour break through the 32% ceiling?

Can Labour break through the 32% ceiling?

Will new polls confirm whether the turmoil is still causing damage? When the May Populus survey showing a Labour deficit of 8% came out last week I urged caution because the survey had been taken against a backcloth of heated speculation and talk of a Labour civil war. Often surveys that take place in such a charged atmosphere, I noted, produce extraordinary results. We should get a better measure of the current state of public opinion over the next eight…

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Punters stick by Labour in spite of new polls

Punters stick by Labour in spite of new polls

Populus and YouGov fail to shift the markets The trend against Labour shown in yesterday’s Populus Poll is reinforced this morning in a new YouGov poll for this morning’s Daily Telegraph. The Betfair betting exchange price, meanwhile, has seen the Labour price tighten and the Tory price ease. The shares with comparisons on the last YouGov poll are CON 37%(+2): LAB 31%(-1): LD 17% (-1). YouGov is still reporting a high share – 6% – for the BNP. Although other…

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Budget betting: Tories progress while Blair wobbles

Budget betting: Tories progress while Blair wobbles

There’s been very little reaction on the various betting markets to today’s Budget. The only real movement was on the Tories for the General Election and whether Tony Blair will survive another 21 months. As the chart illustrates the immediate reaction was that the chances of Blair staying until the end of next year declined sharply immediately after Gordon Brown sat down but prices recovered soon afterwards. On the who will win most seats General Election market there was a…

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At last – the Gordon & David Show

At last – the Gordon & David Show

Whose career prospects will look better tonight? This afternoon’s budget looks set to become the first one for many decades when there’ll be almost as much interest in the response of the Leader of the Opposition as in the contents of the Chancellor’s statement itself. For this will be the first time that David Cameron has faced Gordon Brown across the floor of the House in what is likely to be a foretaste of things to come. How will Brown’s…

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We’re back with the YouGov-ICM divide

We’re back with the YouGov-ICM divide

.. YouGov has Labour 3% behind while ICM shows a 4% lead In much of the period leading up to the 2005 General Election the UK’s two major polling organisations were showing very different pictures of the way the public were thinking. Alas by polling day findings from the two firms almost converged and it was hard to draw a significant conclusion about their respective methodologies. Today a telephone survey by ICM in the SundayTelegraph has LAB 37: CON 33:…

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Another poll has the Tories doing better against Brown

Another poll has the Tories doing better against Brown

What is it about the Chancellor that boosts Tory support? Further details from the March ICM poll in the Guardian show that while the Tories are three points behind Labour they would be running neck and neck if David Cameron was facing Gordon Brown. The main voting intention figures, covered in the previous thread, had CON 34: LAB 37: LD 21 and are the first numbers from ICM since Cameron won the leadership where the Tories are behind. But when…

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