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Category: General Election

Why I won’t be betting against the pollsters next time

Why I won’t be betting against the pollsters next time

Are we now in an era of more accurate polling? At the 2005 General Election I made several thousand pounds on a number of spread bets “selling” the projected Labour share. The spreads were very much in line with what the pollsters were reporting and I believed that they were over-stating the party. Thus one bet was at 38.5% against the actual 36.3% – meaning my winnings were the difference between the two numbers multiplied by the four figure sum…

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YouGov reports that the Tories are down a point

YouGov reports that the Tories are down a point

But is Anthony King right with his historical comparisons? This month’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph has with changes on last month: CON 38(-1): LAB 33 (nc): LD 18 (nc). So the only difference is a one point fall in Tory support reducing the margin over Labour to 5%. These shares are broadly similar to this week’s Guardian ICM survey which had the Tories on 39% – four points ahead. The big difference between the two pollsters is the…

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Is Cameron boosting the Labour vote as well?

Is Cameron boosting the Labour vote as well?

What’s Ming’s party’s role in the Cameron-Brown world? The July ICM poll in the Guardian did match its billing – it was full of surprises for all three parties. The Tory 39% equalling their highest share from the pollster in 13 years; Labour maintaining their 35% in spite of everything and the Lib Dem 17% being their lowest ICM figure since before the Iraq War. Until now all the focus has been on David Cameron attracting Lib Dem supporters and…

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Tories open up 4% gap in the July ICM poll

Tories open up 4% gap in the July ICM poll

But Cameron needs more than 39% before he can think of Number 10? After all the waiting the delayed figures from the Guardian’s July ICM survey are now out and they have the Tories moving forward, Labour holding steady but the Lib Dems falling back. These are the shares with comparisons on the last ICM poll which was in the Sunday Telegraph nearly three weeks ago. CON 39 (+3): LAB 35 (nc): LD 17 (-1).. Note that the reports that…

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Polling junkies be warned: the Guardian plays ICM striptease

Polling junkies be warned: the Guardian plays ICM striptease

If you want to know how the parties are doing you’ll have to wait If you had hoped to wake up this morning to read how the parties are getting on as recorded in the longest running and most authoritative polling series in British politics – then tough. The Guardian has decided to play polling striptease with its ICM July poll so although there are hints of goodies to come the paper is making us wait for the key data…

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Could we be within 15 months of a General Election?

Could we be within 15 months of a General Election?

Would Brown’s first move to be to seek a fresh mandate? With John Prescott suggesting yesterday that there’ll be an announcement “very shortly” on the Labour transition there continues to be speculation that the first act of an incoming Gordon Brown government would be to ask the Queen to dissolve parliament so there could be an immediate General Election. Brown would then be able to go to the country to get his own mandate and secure a full term of…

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Bad news for Ming and Gordon in the South West

Bad news for Ming and Gordon in the South West

Do Scottish leaders go down badly in England? In what must be the first survey of its kind confined to one specific English region there’s striking news tonight of the different reactions voters have to the two Scottish party leaders and the English Tory one. The survey from Marketing Means was carried out last week and involved contacting 1,008 people. The vote shares found were with changes on the General Election CON 41 (+3): LAB 22 (-1): LD 30 (-3)…..

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Why I’m betting on Frank Luntz – not Martin Baxter

Why I’m betting on Frank Luntz – not Martin Baxter

Time to make a call on the next General Election Over the weekend the city mathematician who runs Electoral Calculus, Martin Baxter (right), produced another of his General Election predictions based on his “poll of polls” and applying the swing to each Westminster seat. His figures with the Tories 3.37% ahead produced a projected House of Commons of CON 267: LAB 311: LD 36 seats. So Labour would be just 13 short of an overall majority. The Tories, in spite…

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