..and Brown trails 11% on “who would be best PM” In the first public poll after the conference season ICM in the Sunday Telegraph is reporting a big increase in the Tory lead and some poor figures for the Chancellor over “who would make the best Prime Minister”. The shares with comparisons on the last ICM poll a week ago are CON 38% (+2): LAB 32% (-3): LD 20%(+1). This is the second biggest lead that the pollster has had…
With maybe three years to go the Commons majority markets open So we’ve ended conference season and we’ve now got a clearer idea about how all three main parties will tackle the coming months. But what’s this all going to mean in General Election terms? Do we have any greater feeling about the outcome? The challenge is that nobody has any real idea how a Brown-led Labour is going to go down with the voters. Will his changed status as…
But 70% of voters say it’s “time for change” With the Labour Conference due to start in Manchester on Sunday the first of several polls this weekend, ICM for the Guardian, shows little change on the last survey by the pollster last weekend. The party shares are: CON 36%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LD 22%(+1). The finding that should really worry Labour is that 70% of those in the survey said they thought is was “time for change”, if there were a…
Poll for Sun has Tory leader nine points ahead A new YouGov poll for today’s Sun has Gordon Brown falling even further behind David Cameron to the question “If you had to choose – who do you think would make the better Prime Minister – Gordon Brown or David Cameron”. These were the shares with comparisons on the same question just one week ago. Brown 34 (-2): Cameron 43 (+2) The Sun seeks to explain Cameron’s lead by noting “This…
Will Labour’s new leader seek an early mandate? For all the excitement we might have on PBC the bookies have been most reluctant to open any decent markets on the biggest change in the UK political landscape for more than a decade. None of the spread companies, for instance, has got into the Labour leadership – a sharp contrast with what they did during last year’s Tory contest. I suppose that their view is that it is a foregone conclusion…
Lloyd George was a trailblazer in a number of ways. As Chancellor he introduced the old age pension, unemployment benefit and financial support for the sick. As Prime Minister he led the country through most of the First World War. After the war he introduced political funding systems much like those seen today – by selling honours. One of his key areas of trailblazing was to approach politics from the perspective of winning the general election, rather than building a…
Tories take record 9% lead with ICM After a 24 hours which has seen biting criticism from inside his party at the plans to increase the number of women Tory MPs the ICM Guardian poll for August is out this morning and shows that his party in in a position where it could just have a working majority after the next election. The headline figures with changes on last month are CON 40% (+1): LAB 31% (-4): LDEM 22% (+5)….
Will Labour get back on top with a new leader? The above chart represents the collective decisions of a very odd group of political gamblers – people who have bet on the next General Election even though though they know they will locking up their cash for several years at not particularly attractive prices. The odds they bet at are represented over time as an implied probability and the changes produce a graphic illustration of how the chances for the…