The internet pollster follows the trend of the other firms With David Cameron due to celebrate his first year as Tory leader in five days time the latest survey by YouGov for the Daily Telegraph reinforces the trends in all the other polls in November bar Mori showing a decline in his party position in relation to Labour. The figures for today’s poll with comparisons on the October survey are: CON 37 (-2): LAB 32 (nc): LD 16 (nc). So…
And 53% predict that Labour will win a fourth term Full details are now out on the Ipsos Mori site of the poll of members of the Political Studies Association which was prepared for their annual conference this week. Although no voting intention was asked the 283 respondents responded were questioned about what outcome they personally were hoping for at the General Election. These were the shares – LAB maj 54%: HUNG 21%: CON maj 15% so it is reasonable…
Who’ll win battles between Labour and the Lib Dems? While most of the focus has been on the Tories and Labour we should not forget the other major battle-ground at the next General Election – those seats where Labour and the Lib Dems are slugging it out. And for me nowhere is more interesting than Manchester Withington – where in May 2005 John Leech for the Lib Dems turned round a Labour majority of 11,500 votes increasing the party’s share…
But the Tory lead widens to 8% with Brown as Labour leader The headline General Election voting intention figures show a big improvement for Labour in this month’s ICM poll in the Guardian. The shares are with the changes on October CON 37% (-2): LAB 32% (+3): LD 22% (nc). This brings the pollster more into line with the other firms but still contrasts sharply with the 5% Labour lead in the same survey a year ago two weeks before…
Was Blair doing the Chancellor a favour with his fighting imagery? As often happens in politics the initial reaction to a development or a speech can change quite drastically within a few days. Last Wednesday Tony Blair’s farewell Commons performance in a Queen’s speech debate was well received by commentators particularly his “put down” of David Cameron by threatening him with a “big fist” – a move seen as an endorsement of Gordon Brown. By yesterday there had been a…
Is this the result of Murdoch’s ferocious attacks on the Tory leader After a week which has seen savage criticism by the Murdoch press on David Cameron and positive media coverage generally of Gordon Brown the November Populus poll in the Times shows the following shares with changes on last month – CON 36% (nc): LAB 33% (-2): LD20 % (+2). So the trend is in line with recent YouGov, ICM and Communicate Research polls but with the Tory margin…
Will today’s YouGov data give a better pointer to tactical voting? Detailed data from the October YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph, due out sometime today, should provide an indication of how tactical voting might impact on the next General Election. The poll, it will be recalled had a CON 46% – Lab 33% split to the question “If you had to choose, which would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative Government led by David Cameron…
Does more polling bad news make him less certain for leader? The final poll of this survey rich week has seen another poor performance for Labour, more terrible figures for the Lib Dems. and the Tories consolidating a significant lead. The shares in YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph with comparisons on the last poll a month ago are CON 39% (+3): LAB 32% (-4): LD 16 (nc). The YouGov figures reinforce the polls on Tuesday and Wednesday from Communicate…