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Category: General Election

Why does Tony feel he has to apologise to Cameron?

Why does Tony feel he has to apologise to Cameron?

Will this be the first row of the Gord-Dave era? Reproduced above is the start of the main political story in today’s Observer and looks set to be the first Labour-Tory battle ground for Brown’s arrival at Number 10. With both new leaders jostling to assert themselves this could be very dangerous territory. For, according to the report, one of the big ideas outlined from Brown last weekend was part of a package of suggestions put by the Tories in…

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Will Gord’s polling bounce be as big as Dave’s?

Will Gord’s polling bounce be as big as Dave’s?

Should gamblers be betting on Labour moving back into the lead? On November 22nd 2005, just two weeks before David Cameron was crowned as Tory leader Mori was showing Labour with a 42%-32% lead over the Tories. On December 12th, less than a week after the Tory leadership election result, the pollster had a CON-LAB split of 40%-31%. So Cameron’s Mori “bounce” was a staggering 19%. If the arrival of Gordon as leader and Prime Minister was to have the…

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Are the Tories incapable of change?

Are the Tories incapable of change?

Why my money remains on Labour for the general election A good piece by Daniel Finkelstein in the Times this morning sets out lucidly something I have been planing to touch on for a week and which will almost certainly decide the next election. For is the Tory party capable of changing itself so it can become electable again? For while the leadership has made big steps in evolving the way Tories present themselves will the party be able to…

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Labour gets one point closer with Populus

Labour gets one point closer with Populus

The public, but not Tories, support Dave’s grammar school stance The only movement in the June survey by Populus for the Times is a one point decrease in the Tory share bringing the lead over Labour down to just 3%. The shares with changes on last month are: CON 36%(-1): LAB 33% (nc): LD 17% (nc). The fieldwork took place over the weekend and the Tories will probably be relieved that they’ve survived almost intact. Labour might have been hoping…

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Tory ICM lead increases by 3% in spite of grammar row

Tory ICM lead increases by 3% in spite of grammar row

Is the Cameron bike back on the road? Two threads this morning with the publication of two key polls – one from ICM on national voting intention and a YouGov survey of Labour and TU members ahead of the deputy leadership election. After a period of solid good media coverage for Labour and two weeks of public infighting amongst the Tories over the grammar school row the ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph this morning shows a huge boost for…

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Could YouGov’s approach be understating the Brown bounce?

Could YouGov’s approach be understating the Brown bounce?

What happens if you don’t measure “likelihood to vote”? One of the most important questions asked by four the five pollsters that regularly carry out national voting intention surveys in the UK – ICM, Populus, Ipsos-Mori and Communicate Research – is how likely it is that respondents will actually vote. Those surveyed are asked to rate, usually on a scale of 1-10, how likely it is that they will turn out and these answers play a huge part in determining…

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Boost for Cameron as the Tories move to 39% with YouGov

Boost for Cameron as the Tories move to 39% with YouGov

But Brown gets within 3% on the pollster’s forced choice question Regular visitors here will know that it has long been a pet theory of mine that what drives Tory ratings in the opinion polls is the amount of publicity, good or bad, that the leader, David Cameron, is getting. If he’s out of the headlines and bulletins then his party slips – if not his party moves forward. Thus after a week where the main political story has been…

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Will you bet that the “named leader” question is wrong?

Will you bet that the “named leader” question is wrong?

Why’s Labour deficit 6% bigger when the leaders are mentioned As predicted here on Monday there has been a move back to Labour on the general election betting markets in response to the improving poll situation – seen overnight in the May survey for the Guardian. That Labour are now just 2% behind the Tories has seen some movement to Brown’s party on the betting markets – though there has been very light trading. Labour has tightened from 1.54/1 just…

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